Kyle Hunter Sports Betting Picks

*3 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are consistently one of the bottom 10 or 15 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Air Force doesn't have the speed and athleticism to get in a transition battle, so they are going to always do their best to slow things down and win with ball control and win a low scoring contest.

Austin Peay was bottom 100 in the country in average possession length on offense last year too. This Austin Peay team doesn't have many consistent outside shooters. They are scrappy, but they should be happy to play a halfcourt type game and mix in some of their unique defensive looks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams do both play fast, so I understand a high total, but I think this total is a few points too high.

Albany worked on getting better on defense in the offseason with their newcomers. The coaching staff said they have to up the level significantly on defense to take that next key step. Albany still plays a little faster than average, but they aren't at the extreme levels they were 2 and 3 years ago.

Frank Martin and UMass play very fast, but they are typically better on defense than offense. UMass is always going to work very hard and force a lot of turnovers. 

I expect a fast pace here, but the efficiency numbers don't suggest a total in the 160's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears were a really good 3 point shooting team last year, but they lost nearly all of their top outside shooters. Maine also took a big jump though because of their excellent defense. Maine's Coach Markwood thinks this team can be even deeper on defense thanks to their athleticism and length. 

Stony Brook lost their best scorer to the portal, and Stony Brook struggled badly on offensive against Farmingdale State scoring just 66 points in their season opener earlier this week.

I expect both of these teams to finish in the bottom 100 in tempo nationally. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tennessee is well known for its stout defense. The Volunteers should be excellent on defense again this year. The Volunteers have been top five in the nation in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. They should be there once again.

Rick Barnes teams have played to the under at a 58% clip as a 13 point favorite or larger. Northern Kentucky is short on scoring threats, and I see them having real trouble with this Tennessee defense.

Northern Kentucky is able to mix in some zones and they are typically above average on that end of the floor.

Unders with large spreads have done well early in the season over the last decade. Two teams here who are both better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on West Virginia* The Colorado Buffaloes were absolutely embarrassed by the Utah Utes two weeks ago. Colorado was down 43-0 and had negative total yards at halftime. Utah is a really good team, so losing to them is understandable, but the way that game went looked very bad for Colorado. Fast forward to last week when Colorado had a chance to go home and bounce back and show some team unity against Arizona. How did it go? Arizona put up 52 points in three quarters and stomped Colorado in a huge way. Colorado didn't look at all motivated.

West Virginia has found something in Scotty Fox as their quarterback. The Mountaineers played TCU tight two weeks ago, and then beat Houston on the road last week. West Virginia is still clearly playing hard.

These two teams are headed in different directions right now. Morgantown is a really nice home field advantage. 

Take West Virginia. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams both prefer to play at a much slower pace than the national average. 

Florida is 89th in the nation in explosive play rate on offense. The Gators are 113th in passing play success rate. They rely more on running the ball. Kentucky is 31st in YPC allowed and 36th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

I've been very impressed by the Florida defense this year. The Gators are 25th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 37th best at preventing explosive plays. Kentucky is just 126th in explosive play rate offensively. The Wildcats are very poor in the red zone offensively. 

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and both teams are playing slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arkansas State is heavily reliant on the passing game, and Southern Miss is excellent in the secondary. Southern Miss is 19th in passing play success rate allowed. Southern Miss is 20th at PFF in coverage grade. Southern Miss is 42nd in passing explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss is 10th nationally in pass rush grade. Arkansas State is 119th in havoc allowed. The Red Wolves have a low early downs EPA on offense. I think Raynor and Arkansas State will be in a lot of bad spots on offense.

Arkansas State has improved a lot defensively of late. The Red Wolves have allowed 14, 24, and 10 points in their last three games. They gave up just 2.8 yards per play to Troy a week ago. Their run defense has improved drastically in the last three contests. 

Neither of these offenses have been very good at hitting big plays. Above a couple key numbers, I'll go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers offense is terrible. Wisconsin is averaging 6.75 points per game in their last four games. Wisconsin is 133rd in the nation in tempo, so they are stalling in a big way. Wisconsin is 135th out of 136 teams in the country in explosive play rate on offense. They are also 134th in points per scoring opportunity, so they are awful at cashing in if they ever do get down deep into opponents territory.

Washington struggled offensively badly at Maryland and at Michigan. The Huskies offense hasn't looked the same on the road. Washington is 80th in tempo. The Wisconsin secondary has been poor, but the run defense is above average.

The Washington defense is 21st in explosiveness allowed. They are 35th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

The weather here could be a factor. The forecast calls for some rain showers that could even turn to snow showers later in the game. The winds will be picking up later in the game. Sustained winds of 12 mph late in the game with gusts to 19 mph are expected.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are a completely different offense with new quarterback Samari Collier leading the way. Collier is a really good runner who has made some good passes in the system as well. Coastal Carolina has scored 45 and 44 points in the last two games after struggling badly to score earlier this year. 

Georgia State plays quickly, but they are a really weak defense. They have allowed 41, 41, and 38 points in their last three games. I think they'll give up a lot again here.

Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 27 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Both teams play at an above average pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has been amazing the last few weeks. They held Virginia to just 10 points in regulation. They held Cal to 291 yards of offense. They didn't allow a defensive touchdown against Syracuse last week. This unit has really put it together of late.

North Carolina has played very slow on offense. The Tar Heels are 121st in the nation in tempo. They played at an extremely slow pace last week with the lead. They are favored in this game as well. 

These two offenses are 125th and 112th in the nation (out of 136 teams) in yards per play on offense. They are 121st and 125th in the country in explosiveness on offense as well. 

Both of these teams have been dreadful at finishing drives. They are 127th and 119th in the country in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

A slow pace and two offenses who struggle to hit big plays or cash in when in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Indiana* The Indiana Hoosiers have been dominant this year. Indiana is 7th in yards per play on offense. They are third nationally in offensive success rate. They are 10th in YPC. The Penn State defense has disappointed this year, especially against the run. Penn State is 91st in rushing play success rate allowed. They are also only 108th in sacks per game.

Indiana has excelled in the red zone. The Hoosiers are second offensively in points per scoring opportunity on offense. Defensively, they are first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity allowed. Penn State has been weak in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Penn State is on a backup quarterback who has been shaky. Indiana's defensive front is second in the nation in havoc created. 

Curt Cignetti is 29-14 ATS as a head coach. The Hoosiers would be happy to get a convincing win over a huge name brand. I don't see Penn State being able to keep up here.

Take Indiana.