Matt Fargo Sports Betting Picks

This is a play on the XAVIER MUSKETEERS for our CBB Rivalry Rout. Cincinnati and Xavier square off in the latest edition of the Crosstown Shootout with the Musketeers looking to get things right. Xavier opened the season with a pair of blowout wins at home before going to Purdue and getting smacked. The Musketeers then headed to Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event where it lost its opening game to Washington three points before blowing away St. Mary's. The Musketeers come into Saturday on a three-game losing streak, all at home, but all could have gone either way including a six-point loss to No. 3 Houston. Cincinnati comes in undefeated at 6-0 following a 37-point win over Florida Gulf Coast. Five of the six games have been at home with the only road game taking place at Howard and the Bearcats were lucky to escape with a five-point win in overtime. Cincinnati has lost four straight meetings in this series but Xavier is desperate and will set up yet again. 10* (700) Xavier Musketeers

This is a play on the CANISIUS GOLDEN GRIFFINS for our CBB Letdown Dominator. Pittsburgh had lost two straight games before heading to West Virginia for the Backyard Brawl on Wednesday and leaving with a resounding 17-point win over West Virgnia. That puts the Panthers in a massive letdown spot against a sneaky good team and they are now overvalued. Before the home losses against Missouri and Clemson, Pittsburgh won its first four home games against inferior opposition and it covered all of those as a double-digit favorite and while this could be considered another inferior opposition, it is not. Canisius opened the season with three straight road games where it went 1-2 with double-digit losses at Syracuse and Cleveland St. sandwiched around a solid win against a very experienced St. Bonaventure team. The Golden Griffins came home to defeat D'Youville and they then hit the road again to Quebec for the 2023 Northern Classic and pulled off a pair of upsets. They are 5-2 in their last seven games with the two losses coming by six points. 10* (693) Canisius Golden Griffins

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CBB Nonconference GOM. We played on Clemson on Wednesday and while it defeated rival South Carolina, it failed to cover with a five-point victory after overcoming an 11-point second half deficit. The Tigers improved to 8-0 on the season and they cracked into the top 25 following impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh to move into the rankings. While a win over the Gamecocks could provide a letdown, that is unlikely here against an undefeated opponent and because of that and the neutral court, there is line value. TCU opened the season with six straight home games against nobody as it was favored by at least 26.5 points in all of those games. The Horned Frogs finally headed on the road to face a bad Georgetown team and they won it on a three-point bomb as time expired but it never should have been a win as the shooter stepped out of bounds. Officials explained that they cannot review an out-of-bounds call that wasn't made live so they got away with it. 10* (664) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BILLIKENS for our CBB False Favorite. The Billikens opened the season 4-0 which includes a solid win against Wyoming in the opening round of the Myrtle Beach Invitational but things have gone south since then. They lost the next two games in South Carolina to Vermont and Wichita St. by double digits and they have gone 1-3 since then including three straight losses. The lone win came against Dartmouth at home by one point so that was far from a convincing victory. St. Louis is 3-1 at home overall with a five-point loss against a solid Utah St. team being the most recent. Hofstra opened the season with an expected blowout of St. Joseph's (LI) before losing its next two games against Princeton and George Washington by seven and 11 points respectively. The Pride have gone 5-0 since then and have missed out on a 5-0 ATS run by just a half-point. The recent run could turn into some lethargic play but the big thing is that Hofstra is at Duke on Tuesday which is a no doubt lookahead. 10* (656) St. Louis Billikens

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our CBB Supreme Annihilator. We played against Indiana last time out and it ended up going into Michigan and winning by three points to open 2-0 in the Big Ten Conference. The Hoosiers are 7-1 overall including a 3-0 ATS run with the loss coming against Connecticut by 20 points and only other road game resulted in an eight-point win at a very bad Louisville team. While this is a neutral site game, it is in Atlanta so while the Hoosier fans travel well, this will be a partisan Auburn crowd for sure. The Hoosiers have Kansas on deck. Auburn opened the season with a loss against Baylor that took place in Sioux Falls before running off five straight wins, three coming at home including a rout of Virginia Tech. The Tigers followed that game up with a trip to Appalachian St. last Sunday that resulted in a last minute loss. It can be chalked up to a bad shooting day as Auburn went 3-28 (11 percent) from behind the arc. They get it back here. 10* (638) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Kansas St. did it again as it hit a three-pointer with 3.9 seconds left in overtime to beat Villanova by one point. That was the third straight win in overtime for the Wildcats which are now 4-0 on the season in overtime and 9-0 in their last nine overtime games going back to last season. Kansas St. is 7-2 overall with the two losses coming against Miami in the Bahamas and against USC in Las Vegas so this is their first true road game of the season. LSU is off to a lethargic 4-3 start that includes a neutral site loss to Wake Forest and a road blowout loss to Syracuse. The Tigers are 3-1 at home with the lone defeat being a horrible one to Nicholls St. as a 19-point favorite. LSU brings in 0-3 and 1-5 ATS runs which is giving it value along with the skewed Kansas St. start that could be reversed. This is a revenge game for LSU which lost to Kansas St. in the Cayman Islands Classic Championship in the final seconds. 10* (624) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. After opening the season 0-2, Youngstown St. has gone 6-1 over its last seven games with includes a pair of wins over Cleveland St. and Robert Morris to open 2-0 in the Horizon League and then backed that up with a six-point win at Ohio as an 8.5-point underdog. The only loss over this stretch was at Dayton where the Penguins kept it somewhat close and they now come in on a 5-0 ATS run which has them overvalued in a game they could easily look past. Western Michigan opened the season 0-4 starting with two tough home losses by a combined 11 points and then a pair of road Big Ten losses where it covered both. The Broncos then won a pair of neutral site games in Florida to capture the Emerald Coast Classic before a bad loss to St. Thomas at home but that can be chalked up to a lookahead to Notre Dame three days later which they got blasted. Now they are back home with value to break their 0-3 home mark. 10* (618) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our CBB Early Blowout. After suffering a loss at home to Marquette, Illinois has won five straight games including a win at Rutgers to open Big Ten Conference action and then a nine-point win over Florida Atlantic at MSG in its two most recent games. While the opponent here is another strong one, those games could provide some letdown. After opening the season 0-4 ATS, the Illini have covered four straight, adding value to the other side. Tennessee is off to a disappointing 5-3 start but one look at the schedule shows why. The Volunteers played in the Maui Invitational and after defeating Syracuse in the first round, they drew Purdue and Kansas in the next two rounds and while losing both, they were within reach late in the second half. Tennessee then had to travel to North Carolina which resulted in another late loss where it came back from a huge deficit. They own a quality win over Wisconsin and this would add another one. 10* (610) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our Army/Navy Annihilator. Even though both teams come in with a 5-6 record, the winner will not go to a bowl game as neither team had enough wins prior to Selection Sunday although there should have been an exemption for this game. Nonetheless, this is the biggest game of the season for both teams as they head to New England for the first time in series history. While it looks like a tossup, Navy has the edge in the all important area of rushing defense as both offenses are ranked in the top 15 in rushing. Navy comes in No. 30 in rushing defense, allowing 121.9 ypg on 3.6 ypc and has improved dramatically as after allowing 190 or more yards on the ground three times in its first five games, it has not allowed more than 137 yards in any of their last six games. Conversely, Army is No. 116 in rushing defense, allowing 180.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc and has allowed more than 200 yards in six of 11 games. The Black Knights are 1-6 this season when allowing 155 or more yards rushing. Turnovers could play a factor and that is where Navy has the edge as well. Army is No. 110 in the country in turnover margin and No. 115 in giveaways while Navy is No. 3 in turnover margin, No. 7in takeaways and No. 12 in giveaways. 10* (104) Navy Midshipmen