Alex Smart Sports Betting Picks

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

N CAROLINA A&T is 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as an underdog . 

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (HIGH POINT) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (20% or ,less) are 19-53 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina A&T to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

STONEHILL is 9-1 UNDER  versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less  of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 126.8 ppg scored,STONEHILL is 16-5 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 free or less throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored. 

 RIDER is 12-3 UNDER after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.2 ppg scored.

CBB  teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (RIDER STONEHILL) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two struggling  teams (20% or less ) are 51-19 UNDER L/26 seasons with the combined average of 136.7 ppg scored. 

Play under

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections place the combined score to fall into the mid 140 range giving us a viable opportunity to cash a under ticket.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (FARLEIGH DICKINSON) - an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a terrible team (8 or less PPG differential), after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game are 39-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 145.1 . 

Play under

The Kings are off a  127-117 loss  to the visiting New Orleans Pelicans on Monday during the in-season tournament quarterfinals, while the Suns were beaten by a  106-103 count to the host Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday in another  quarterfinal matchup. From a matchup perspective the Kings from my viewpoint stand a better chance of a bounce back, knowing that HC Brown is 17-4 ATS off a home loss as the coach of SACRAMENTO and. 11-2 ATS in road games vs. division opponents as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

Meanwhile,  ,Vogel is 1-10 ATS   versus good shooting teams -like the Kings that convert 46% or better  of their shots as the coach of PHOENIX. The Suns have failed to cover in 4 straight. 

NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are just 5-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-12 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Kings are 3-1 SU L/4 vs Suns.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Philadelphia is on extended rest , as they have not played since Dec 1. There is a such a thing as too much time off, and thus getting back into game flow is not an easy transition. Im betting the  rust could cause a lack of continuity  for the 76ers and for an Atlanta side on two days rest to come out here in give the 76ers all they can handle. I know the Hawks have not been viable bets of late, failing to cover in 5 straight and 9 of their L/10 but 6 of those games were as favorites and 5 of those losses were by 2 points or less. 

ATLANTA is 21-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Snyder in 16 games  against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of ATLANTA has ween a ppg diff of -6.2.   Snyder in 14 games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of ATLANTA has seen a average ppg diff of -5 ppg. Snyder in 102 games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game in all games he has in his carrer has seen an average ppf diff of -5. .

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

Detroit is mired in a nasty slump to start their season losing 17 of 19 games, but Im not worried about that as a pretext to me taking them to cover. After-all Im in the business of picking advantageous situations against what the linesmkaers are offering. In this situation the Magic despite of being a team on the rise are a little banged up on the injury front, and have lost two straight while the Pistons, despite of their ugly numbers have covered at a 5-1-1 ATS rate in their L/7 games as underdogs of 9 or more points. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

My projections estimate a combined score that hits in the high 230s, giving us a a one to two possession edge on this Totals offering to the under. 

Nurse in his L/87 games  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in all games he has coached in his career have seen a combined average of 226.2 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game are 27-4 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 59-27 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under