John Ryan Sports Betting Picks

Oilers vs Knights 
7-Unit bet on the Knights priced as a –130 favorite. 

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 153-77 SU record (67%) that has averaged a –135-wager resulting in a 26% ROI and a $60,610 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $3,030 profit for the $50 per game bettor since 2015. The requirements are: Bet on home teams using the money line priced between –115 and -165. Our home team lost their previous game by three or more goals. The visitors scored three or more goals in each of their last two games. 

The following NHL betting algorithm has produced a 65-34 SU record (66%) winning bets since 2006 and a highly profitable 35% ROI and a $28,240 profit for the Die Bettor and a $1,410 profit for the casual bettor. 

 The requirements are: Bet on home teams using the money line priced between -110 and -150. Our home team lost their previous game by three or more goals. The visitor has scored three or more goals in each of their last two games.  

If the game takes place in the playoffs, they have gone an impressive 11-4 for 73% and have averaged a –125 bet resulting in a 38% ROI.  

Rays vs Blue Jays 
7-Unit bet on the Rays priced as a 130-underdog. 

The following betting algorithm has produced a 61-67 (48%) record averaging a 154-underdog bet resulting in a terrific 17% ROI and making a 324,080 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2019. The requirements are:  

Bet on road dogs priced between a 125 and 175 underdog. The starter for our dog has an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 in the current season. Our dog is from the AL The favorite has a starter that averages five or more Ks per game in the current season. If the dog has a winning record in the current season has produced a 27-25 (52%) record averaging a 147-underdog bet and a 24% ROI earning the Dime Bettor a $15,450 profit. 

Cardinals vs Phillies 1:05 start 
7-Unit Bet on the Phillies priced at –185 and boxed with Luzardo on the hill. 

This is the same matchup that was rained out Tuesday. The weather is still in the region, but the large storm is rolling north, and I do expect both games of this double-header to be completed.  

When playing at home and having scored three or fewer runs in each of their last two games, the Phillies are a highly profitable 22-12 for 65% winners that have averaged a –125 bet and a 24% ROI.   

Knicks vs Celtics 
5-Unit bet on the Celtics priced as a 4.5-point favorite. 

With Tatem out due to a horrible non-contact tear of his Achilles tendon, most teams would be unable to compete at the NBA Playoff level. However, they are the world champions and with that comes an extreme amount of pride and focus. The Celtic depth is another reason the market is pricing them as a 4.5-point favorite entering this Game 5 showdown.  

The following NBA Playoff betting system has produced a 63-11 SU and 52-21-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2003.  

The game is in the playoffs. 

Bet on home teams that are seeded 2 or 1. 

They are favored by 4 or more points. 

They were favored by 4 or more points in their previous game. 

They lost their previous game by 4 or more points. 

A key point is that the market has baked in the loss of Tatem, which accounts for approximately three points in the line. The fact that they are still favored is positive sign the Celtics can find a way to win this game and cover the spread. The Knicks have not been to the conference finals in 25 years – since Bill Clinton was President. This entire roster lacks any experience to close out a conference semifinal series. The Celtics have loads of experience in that role. Few teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series in any round. In fact, just 4.8% of all teams that trailed 3-1 in a series have come back to earn the upset.  

The last three NBA Playoff series where a team overcame a 3-1 deficit, including the playoff round, are: 

2020 Western Conference Semifinals: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers 

Details: The Nuggets, led by Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić, rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win 4-3, highlighted by a Game 7 victory (104-89). This was their second 3-1 comeback in the 2020 playoffs. 

2020 Western Conference First Round: Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz 

Details: Denver overcame a 3-1 deficit, winning Game 7 (80-78) in a low-scoring affair. The series featured a high-scoring duel between Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell. 

2016 NBA Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 

Details: The Cavaliers, led by LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, made history by overcoming a 3-1 deficit to win 4-3, clinching Game 7 (93-89). This is the only 3-1 comeback in NBA Finals history. 

These comebacks are part of the 13 total 3-1 deficit recoveries in NBA playoff history, with the Nuggets’ 2020 feats being the only instance of a team achieving this twice in one postseason. 

 
Now, I am not suggesting that the Celtics can overcome the 3-1 deficit, but only that the current situation provides a high probability from my models that they can win. If you are a Celtics fan or an astute bettor searching for value, then betting the Celtics at +500 to come back and win the series may be for you. Granted the line implies a 20% chance they do win the series which is a far cry from the historical 5% occurrence. For a pizza money sized bet, it is quite intriguing to consider.  

Player Prop Considerations 

These are pizza-money sized bets. 

Bet Under Brunson total points priced at 30 and with no more than –135 vig. 

Bet UNDER Jaylon Brown PRA priced at 40 and with no more than –130 vig. 

Knicks vs Celtics 
7-Unit bet UNDER the posted total of 208.5 points. 

Jayson Tatum suffered a non-contact lower leg injury, likely to his right leg, late in the fourth quarter of the Boston Celtics' Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks on May 12, 2025. He was carried off the court and seen in a wheelchair, unable to put weight on the leg, raising significant concerns about his availability. Tatum underwent an MRI on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, to assess the injury, but no official update on the results or his status for Game 5 has been confirmed as of the latest reports. Given the severity of the injury's appearance—described as potentially season-altering by sources like The Athletic and ESPN—and the lack of a positive update, it’s highly unlikely Tatum will play in Game 5 on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, at TD Garden. Posts on X reflect pessimism, with some speculatinga serious injury like a torn Achilles, though this remains unconfirmed. The Celtics, trailing 3-1 in the series, are preparing to face the Knicks without their star, relying on players like Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis to keep their season alive. For the latest updates, check ESPN or NBA.com, as Tatum’s status could hinge on the MRI results 

The following NBA playoff betting algorithm has produced a 20-9 UNDER record good for 69% winning bets since 2002. The requirements are: 

Bet the UNDER with a home team that is trailing in the series. 

The line is four or more points better for our home team than their last home game in the same series. 

The game is in the playoffs. 

The Boston Celtics have a strong historical record when Jayson Tatum is not in the lineup, going 29-22 all-time (56.9% win percentage). Against the spread (ATS), they are 28-22-1 (56% cover rate). More recently, since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Celtics are 8-1 without Tatum, showcasing their depth. Both losses in the 2024-25 season were to the Orlando Magic, highlighting a specific matchup challenge. These stats reflect Boston’s ability to adapt without their star, leaning on players like Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard. For detailed game-by-game breakdowns, check the sports data provided earlier.