SBP - Sportsbooks & Picks Handicapping

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 9/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is with the money-line with the Arizona Diamondbacks versus the Colorado Rockies listing both starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery  and Ryan Feltner. Arizona (83-67) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Rockies last night. The Diamondbacks have won 5 straight games after an upset loss against a fellow NL West rival. They have also won 7 of their last 11 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Colorado (58-93) has won four of their last five games after their victory last night. The Rockies have still lost 20 of their last 31 home games with the Total set in the 11-11.5 range. They have also lost 23 of their last 31 games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Take Arizona with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 7 of 9 (78%) All-Sports run after their THIRD STRAIGHT NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEP last night — CA$HING Frank’s 25* NFC Game of the Month with Atlanta’s UPSET WIN along with the Falcons-Eagles Under! Frank is now on a 70 of 114 (61%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays  — and now he UNLEASHES a 25* MLB Divisional Game of the Month for Tuesday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (968) versus the Detroit Tigers (967) listing both starting pitchers Cole Ragans and Casey Mike. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (82-69) has lost two games in a row after their 7-6 loss at home to the Tigers in the opening game of this series on Monday. Detroit (78-73) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City should rebound tonight as they have won 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by one run. They have also won 22 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 27 of their last 43 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Ragans gets the ball looking to build on his 11-9 record along with his 3.32 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts. The left-hander’s deeper sabermetrics confirm his outstanding season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 3.38. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.42 moving forward. In his last two starts, he sports a 1.50 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Ragans’ teams have won 9 of his 13 starts when they were priced as a money-line favorite up to -150 — and his teams have won five of their seven games at home when he is starting at home in those circumstances. He faces a Tigers team that ranks 27th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers. Detroit has lost 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win against a fellow AL Central rival. They have lost 21 of their last 32 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road against teams winning 54% to 62% of their games. They have also lost 27 of their last 41 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. The Tigers are playing good baseball right now — but handicapping this sport requires a focus on the starting pitchers where the Royals have a big edge tonight. Mize has a 2-6 record along with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander missed almost the entire month of August to an injury — and he has not been in good form since his return on August 30th. In his three starts since, he has been saddled by a 5.63 ERA. His velocity is down on his peak 95 to 96 miles per hour four-seamer — and that really exposes his lack of reliable secondary pitches. His slider has been off all season. He lacks an effective cutter or change-up. His splitter is meh. Despite being a former number-one draft choice, Mize is a JAG (just a guy) who is at his best when he is getting the most out of his fastball. His xERA sits at 4.73 for the season. He has also been more effective at home where he owns a 4.02 ERA along with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in ten starts — but in his nine starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 5.05 ERA along with a 1.61 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .306. He also has a 5.84 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in eight starts at night. Detroit has lost 8 of their last 11 road games with Mize on the mound facing a team that is winning 54% to 62% of their games. He faces a Royals squad that ranks fifth and 11th this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has won 18 of their last 24 home games against fellow AL Central rivals — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (968) versus the Detroit Tigers (967) listing both starting pitchers Cole Ragans and Casey Mize. Best of luck for us — Frank.