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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-10 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 190.5 | 118-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Cavaliers NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190.5
In easily the most anticipated game of the young NBA season, I expect a defensive battle tonight in Cleveland as Lebron James returns home. There's no question that each team will be very nervous for this game, which will lead to poor offensive performance. But the defensive effort will certainly be there with all of Cleveland watching and millions around the world tuning in. The UNDER is 7-2 in Cleveland's 9 home games this season. The Cavs are scoring 91.3 PPG and allowing 94.9 PPG at home this year. Miami's problems this season have been on offense, not on defense. The Heat are scoring 93.7 PPG on the road this year while allowing 93.7 PPG away from home. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER Thursday. |
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12-01-10 | Indiana Pacers +8 v. Utah Jazz | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +8
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. Indiana is 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS this year, outscoring opponents by 3.9 PPG. The Pacers have been doing most of their damage on the road, where they are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. In fact, they have won 4 straight road games over the Heat, Lakers, Kings and Cavaliers. They even beat the all-mighty Heat by 16 points on the road. The biggest difference in this team has been their effort on defense, where head coach Jim O'Brien finally has his team buying in. "This has been three years of hard work," O'Brien said. "This (turnaround) didn't just all of a sudden happen." The Pacers are giving up just 96.4 PPG this season. A healthy Mike Dunleavy, the addition of Darren Collison and the emergence of Roy Hibbert have made a huge difference as well. Danny Granger remains a stud, and scored 37 points last night in a 107-98 win at Sacramento. Granger scored 44 in his last meeting with the Utah Jazz, a 122-106 win for the Pacers. Indiana is 47-26 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996. The Pacers are 21-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Little rest does not effect this young team. That's really the case when you consider the Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Indiana Wednesday. |
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12-01-10 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -6
The Atlanta Hawks are a streaky team this season. They opened the season with 6 straight wins, and went on to lose 7 of their next 9 overall. But this team is back on track, going a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall with blowout wins by 20, 9 and 18 points. I'll ride them to make it 4 straight victories tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot here. They just beat the defending champion Lakers last night 98-96, and there's no way they can match the effort they put into that game neither physically nor mentally. Atlanta comes in on 2 days' rest and will be the much fresher team tonight. The Hawks have owned the Grizzlies. Atlanta is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Memphis, winning and covering 89% of the time. They beat the Grizzlies 119-104 on the road in their season-opener, and have now won three straight meetings by 13 points or more. In fact, they have won 7 of their 9 meetings all by 8 points or more. The Grizzlies are 2-6 on the road this season, getting outscored by 5.7 PPG. The Grizzlies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Grizzlies. Bet the Hawks Wednesday. |
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11-30-10 | San Antonio Spurs -4 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4
The San Antonio Spurs own the best record in the league, and they own the Golden State Warriors. San Antonio is off to a 14-2 start this season, going 10-5-1 ATS in the process. They have won 13 of their last 14 and are finally healthy this season. This is a team that is very motivated as the Lakers have won the last two NBA titles, and they want to get back to their glory days where they were the kings of the NBA. A game against the Warriors tonight won't slow down their momentum. San Antonio is 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Golden State, winning 7 of those contests by 5 points or more. Golden State is just 1-5 in their last 6 games overall, losing by 5 or more points in each of their losses. This play falls under a system that is 47-18 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. San Antonio is scoring a whopping 107.2 PPG this season while allowing 98.9 PPG. Golden State still doesn't play any defense, yielding 105.8 PPG this year. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Spurs Tuesday. |
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11-29-10 | New Orleans Hornets v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 200 | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets/Thunder UNDER 200
The Hornets and Thunder are two tired teams, and fatigue usually produces low scoring games more times than not. Both New Orleans and Oklahoma City will each be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight and their second of a back-to-back. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 road games. The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Hornets are scoring just 96.5 PPG this season overall, including 92.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, New Orleans has been one of the best units in the league giving up 92.2 PPG overall and 90.1 PPG on the road. So in 8 road games this season, New Orleans and their opponents are combining to score an average of 182.8 PPG. New Orleans and Oklahoma City have combined to score 198 or less points in 4 of their last 5 meetings, and 202 or less in all five. Roll with the UNDER in this contest Monday. |
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11-29-10 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -11.5 | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -11.5
The Miami Heat clearly are off to a slow start at 9-8, and after their loss to the Mavericks two nights ago the team called a player's only meeting. I believe they will rally tonight after this meeting, and put together their most dominant performance of the season. The Washington Wizards are just 5-10 this season and have a few injury issues that are holding them back. Both John Wall and Al Thornton are questionable to play tonight. The Wizards 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season, losing by an average of 16.7 PPG. Knowing this alone has the Heat showing tremendous value tonight. Miami is 7-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG. The Wizards are 10-29 ATS in their last 39 vs. NBA Southeast division foes. Miami is 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 meetings with Washington, and James, Wade and Bosh rally the troops to get on track this season starting tonight against the Wizards. Take Miami Monday. |
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11-26-10 | New Orleans Hornets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4 | 97-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Friday Night BAILOUT on Portland -4
Brandon Roy and Joel Pryzbilla are each expected to return for the Blazers, who are getting closer to full strength finally. This team is still very deep, and should get a big boost emotionally with the return of Roy and Pryzbilla. These are two glue guys who lead by example. The New Orleans Hornets are overvalued after their fast start to the season, but reality is starting to set in as they've lost back-to-back games to the Clippers and Jazz. The Trail Blazers are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Trail Blazers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with New Orleans. The Hornets are 7-24 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest. Take Portland Friday. |
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11-24-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Toronto Raptors -5.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. The 76ers are 3-11 this season and Elton Brand is facing a possible suspension tonight after getting ejected from a hard foul last night in their 114-116 overtime loss at Washington. So Philly will be playing the second of a back-to-back here off an overtime game, which is a tough task for any team in the league. Toronto looks to keep playing great basketball by winning their 4th straight game. They have 3 straight wins over the 76ers, Rockets and Celtics. The Raptors have had 2 days' rest coming into this one. Toronto is now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Philly after beating the 76ers 94-86 on the road the other night. This play also falls under a system that is 76-36 (68%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. The 76ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Take Toronto Wednesday. |
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11-23-10 | Detroit Pistons +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5
Fading the Dallas Mavericks as a home favorite over the last few years has been a very prosperous move. The Mavericks are 14-36-3 ATS in their last 53 home games, including 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Dallas is also 6-21-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Worse yet, the Mavericks are 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Time and time again Dallas is overvalued, and that's the case again tonight. Detroit is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Pistons certainly aren't the same team they once were, but they are consistently undervalued on the road. Detroit is playing much better after a slow start to the season, going 5-3 SU in their last 8 games overall. In their last 9 games, the Pistons have gone 7-2 ATS and for the season Detroit is 9-4 ATS in 13 games. That makes them one of the best covering teams in the league this year. Dallas is just 4-3 SU & 1-4-2 ATS in home games this season. The Mavs are only outscoring their 7 opponents at home by 1.7 PPG. Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. |
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11-22-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves +10 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 107-117 | Push | 0 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +10
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in for a monster letdown tonight against Minnesota. OKC has won their last two games by 5 points and 1 point, respectively, despite playing without the services of star Kevin Durant. He is listed as questionable to play tonight with a lingering ankle injury, and Jeff Green is also questionable with a sprained ankle as well. Whether either plays or not, I do not see the Thunder winning this one by double-digits. They are exhausted right now as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. Minnesota comes into this one very fresh, having 2 days of rest since losing to the Lakers and this will be only their 2nd game in 5 days. Since Oklahoma City became a franchise in 2008, the Thunder have only beaten the Timberwolves once in 8 meetings by more than 8 points. Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, only losing once by more than 6 points and that was to the defending champion Lakers. The Timberwolves are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Roll with Minnesota Monday. |
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11-19-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5
The New Orleans Hornets are way overvalued right now after their 9-1 start. They are being asked to win by double-digits tonight, and this is the biggest spread they've beeen asked to cover all season. They were also 9.5-point favorites against the Clippers, who are 1-11 this season. Cleveland is 5-5 this year and continues going under the radar since Lebron James took has talents to South Beach. But this Cavaliers team still has plenty of talent left in the cupboard, and they are actually playing better team basketball this year as they play with a chip on their shoulder. The Cavs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season, playing their best basketball away from home. The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Hornets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. New Orleans is just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Friday games. I respect what the Hornets have done up to this point in the season, but now it's time to fade New Orleans tonight as they are clearly overvalued. Take the Cavaliers Friday. |
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11-17-10 | New Jersey Nets +10.5 v. Utah Jazz | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +10.5
The New Jersey Nets are playing very well on the road here of late, and they are getting way too many points tonight from the Utah Jazz. New Jersey is 2-0 in their last 2 road games, winning at Cleveland 95-87 and at the Los Angeles Clippers 110-96. This is a completely different team from the one we all saw last year, as new head coach Avery Johnson is getting the most out of his team. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and I like their chances of keeping this one within double-digits, possibly pulling off the upset. The Utah Jazz are getting too much respect from the betting public as a result of their recent comeback victories, and odds makers are adjusting their lines accordingly. Utah went on a 5-game winning streak in which four times they came back from double-digit deficits to win games. But they didn't win any of those games by more than 10 points, and that's why New Jersey is showing so much value here tonight. This will be Utah's 4th game in 6 days, so this is a very tired team especially with the way they've had to come from behind to win games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. New Jersey is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. Utah is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday. |
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11-16-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers -2
I really like the Cavs at home tonight laying just two points to the lowly Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are just 2-8 this season, including 1-5 on the road. Philly will be playing without their best player in Andre Iguodala, who is out with an Achilles injury. The Cavs are coming off back-to-back losses, so they'll obviously be hungry to get back on the winning track tonight at home and get back to .500 on the season. This play falls under a system that is 48-14 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (CLEVELAND) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Not only are the Cavs playing on 2 days' rest, this will be only their second game in 6 days. So Cleveland is obviously going to be well-rested and ready to hit the floor tonight. Take the Cavs Tuesday. |
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11-15-10 | Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets PK
The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot tonight, one that has me believing they will not show up to play Monday. Phoenix beat the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers Sunday 121-116 by shooting lights out from distance. The Suns made 22 3-point shots in the win, just one short of the NBA record for most 3-pointers made in a single game. Phoenix used a ton of energy in trying to fend off the Lakers, and they'll come out flat Monday when they get a visit from the Denver Nuggets. This play falls under a system that is 63-25 (71.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (PHOENIX) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog. The Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. So I'll gladly back the team playing on 3 days' rest rather than the team playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 days. Take the Nuggets Monday. |
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11-12-10 | Houston Rockets +4 v. Indiana Pacers | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday No-Brainer on Houston Rockets +4
The Rockets are showing excellent value tonight as an underdog to the Indiana Pacaers. Houston is off to a poor 1-6 start, and as a result this team is starting to get overlooked by the odds makers and the betting public. But this squad is much better than their record, and they've simply been dealt a brutal schedule to this point. This team is going to be very hungry and motivated to turn their season around, starting tonight in Indiana. The Rockets are 90-50 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. So they have been great at bouncing back throughout the years. Better yet, Houston is off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are coming back to win these games by an average of 8.8 PPG. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Rockets Friday. |
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11-11-10 | Los Angeles Lakers -3 v. Denver Nuggets | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
The Denver Nuggets are falling fast, and they no longer appear to be a contender in the Western Conference. There are reasons why Carmelo Anthony wants to leave, and one of the biggest is the fact that he does not think he can win a championship with the Nuggets. The Lakers have their number, and unless they can get through Los Angeles they cannot win a title. Denver is only 4-4 this season, and they've dropped back-to-back games including a 113-144 loss at Indiana last time out. That setback showed a lot about this team as they allowed Indiana to make 20-of-21 shots in a 54-point 3rd quarter. The Lakers are clearly hungry in the early going as they're off to an 8-0 start for only the second time in team history, and are outscoring opponents by 11.5 PPG in the process. The Lakers boast the league's best 3-point shooting offense, making the deep ball at a 43.5% clip. The additions of Matt Barnes and Steve Blake have been overlooked as these two are already playing key roles for the Lakers, and both can knock down the 3-ball. Denver is a tired team right now, and the Nuggets are only 8-20 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 4-16 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Lakers Thursday. |
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11-10-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 194 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Raptors UNDER 194
I'll take the UNDER in this game tonight between two poor offensive teams. Both squads are 1-6 this season, and a lot of it can be attributed to poor shooting. The Bobcats are scoring just 89.9 PPG this season on 45% shooting. They are a team that slows down the pace, which is another reason why I like this UNDER Wednesday. The Raptors are shooting just 43.9% this season, including 28.7% from 3-point range. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. The Bobcats are scoring 84.7 PPG on the road this season while allowing 94.7 PPG away from home. The Raptors are giving up a respectable 96.0 PPG at home this year. The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Better yet, the UNDER is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the UNDER Wednesday. |
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11-10-10 | Houston Rockets -3.5 v. Washington Wizards | 91-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets -3.5
The Washington Wizards are one of the worst teams in the league this season. Washington is 1-4, getting outscored by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Their lone win this season came at home in overtime against the 76ers, also one of the worst teams in the NBA. Sure, Houston is 1-5 this season, but they are much better than their record. That's indicated by the fact that they are only getting outscored by 0.7 PPG this season. Houston has several close losses to very good teams, including the Lakers, Spurs, Hornets and Nuggets. The Rockets get their second win tonight in blowout fashion fresh off a 120-94 thumping of the Timberwolves. Houston has had 2 days' rest, which is important because that means they'll have Yao Ming playing tonight. Ming does not play in the second game of back-to-backs for precautionary reasons. The Rockets are 90-49 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. The Wizards are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Washington, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road meetings with the Wizards. Take the Rockets Wednesday. |
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11-09-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Los Angeles Lakers -16.5 | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -16.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are clearly the worst team in the league this season. The Lakers have been the best team in basketball, starting 7-0 this season while outscoring opponents by 13.6 PPG this season. Minnesota is 1-6 this year, losing by an average of 17.1 PPG. This is a Timberwolves team that only has one player that would start on most other teams, and that's Michael Beasley. Even Beasley admitted earlier this season that his team was terrible. Minnesota is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by a mind-blowing 30.0 PPG. They have not stayed within 20 points of any opponent that they've faced away from home. I see no way they stay within this spread tonight against the best team in the league. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Lakers have won 11 straight meetings with Minnesota. Take L.A. Tuesday. |
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11-09-10 | Detroit Pistons v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5 | 78-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Blazers UNDER 189.5
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league this season. When they get together, a low-scoring game usually is the result. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, with combined scores of 173, 181, 167, 168 and 190 points. Dating back even further, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall. Neither team is shooting the ball that well this season, with Detroit shooting 43.1% from the floor and Portland making only 44.9% of their shots. Both teams have shot blockers inside which will make easy buckets hard to come by. The Pistons have Ben Wallace while the Blazers have Marcus Camby. Portland is 92-58 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss since 1996. The Blazers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Portland is also 28-12 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 10-1 in Trail Blazers last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the UNDER Tuesday. |
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11-08-10 | Phoenix Suns +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Brainer on Phoenix Suns +5
No way should the Phoenix Suns be catching 5 points from the Memphis Grizzlies Monday. The Suns have played a brutal schedule early, getting through it at 3-3 with their only losses coming at the Lakers, at Portland and at home by 2 against San Antonio. They have road wins over the Jazz and Hawks, and also a home win over the Grizzlies already this season. The Grizzlies are 3-4 this season, with their only wins over the Kings, Timberwolves and Mavs. This team is not a worthy 5-point favorite tonight. Phoenix is 44-14 SU & 31-24-3 ATS in their last 58 meetings with Memphis. That includes a 19-9 SU & 17-8-3 ATS mark in their last 28 visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are 3-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 29-14 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, including 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Suns Monday. |
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11-05-10 | Utah Jazz -1 v. Golden State Warriors | 78-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1
After an ugly 0-2 start, the Jazz have looked like the Jazz of old over the last 2 games by beating the Thunder by 21 points on the road followed by a 17-point home win over the Raptors. It took them a couple games to get over life without Carlos Boozer, but they finally have by ripping off 120 points against OKC and 125 against Toronto. Now they face one of the league's worst defensive teams in the Golden State Warriors, who are allowing a whopping 108.7 PPG this season. The Jazz of old would have owned the Warriors, and I expect to see the Jazz of old tonight. Utah is 45-13 SU in all meetings with the Warriors since 1996. The Jazz are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Warriors overall. Utah won all 3 meetings with Golden State last season by 11, 24 and 9 points. The Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Warriors are 31-63-2 ATS in their last 96 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Jazz Friday. |
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11-05-10 | New Jersey Nets +16.5 v. Orlando Magic | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +16.5
This line is set based off of the New Jersey Nets from last season, not the New Jersey Nets of 2010-11. This is a completely revamped franchise with a new owner, a new head coach and many new faces that are already making key contributions. The Nets are 2-2 thus far and should be 3-1 had they not blown a late lead to Charlotte last time out. I expect them to come out hungry tonight and prove that they can play with Orlando, which is actually something they've been doing for quite some time. All 3 meetings between these teams last season were decided by 16 points or less. And that was the awful Nets team that nearly set a the league record for futility. Dating back even further, only once in the last nine meetings have the Nets lost to the Magic by more than 16 points, which was a 17-point loss. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Magic are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. With new faces such as Troy Murphay, Derrick Favors and Travis Outlaw, this team can compete with Orlando. Take the Nets Friday. |
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11-04-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
15* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder were clearly looking ahead to this game when they got embarrassed last night by the Los Angeles Clippers. I fully expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way tonight, likely pulling off the upset in Portland Thursday. The shots simply just have not fallen for OKC in the early going, as they are shooting just 39.3 percent from the floor. As we saw in the playoffs last year, this team is fully capable of competing for the Western Conference title. I expect the Thunder to be much more aggressive tonight in getting to the rim instead of settling for jump shots like they have thus far. I also expect a monster game from Kevin Durant, who went 6-of-24 last night and missed all 10 of his three-point shots. The NBA's reigning scoring champ has shot 47.6 percent from the floor over the past two seasons, so it's only a matter of time for him. "I'm the leader of this team," Durant said. "Everybody follows me, so I didn't show up, the team didn't show up. ... No, it's not too early to worry. We've got to figure this out. Two games in a row, teams just did whatever they want on us. The offense didn't look too good. It's frustrating to watch as a player." He is averaging 30.7 PPG in his last 3 meetings with the Blazers, so a big bounce-back effort is highly likely. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, and 17-4 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Bet Oklahoma City Thursday. |
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11-03-10 | Los Angeles Lakers -5 v. Sacramento Kings | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -5
The Lakers simply own the Sacramento Kings, and I see no reason for that to change tonight. Sacramento is a bit overvalued early in the season after their 3-1 start, which includes unimpressive wins all by 3 points or less over the Timberwolves, Raptors and Cavaliers. This is by far the stiffest test they have faced this season, as they also lost to the Nets. The Lakers have been very impressive en route to their 4-0 start, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Their last two victories have come by 19 and 24 points. The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings with Sacramento, with eight of those wins coming by six points or more. L.A. is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Sacramento. This play also falls under a system that is 23-4 (85%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points. Roll with the Lakers Wednesday. |
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11-02-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Miami Heat UNDER 193 | Top | 97-129 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Heat UNDER 193
The Miami Heat are a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER this season by playing tremendous defense. Opposing teams are scoring just 80.7 PPG and shooting 38.9% from the field on the Heat. I cannot see the Timberwolves, who have one of the worst offensive starting line-ups in the league, put up more than 80 on Miami tonight. It will take some time for Miami to gel offensively, which has been the case this season as the Heat are scoring 93.5 PPG and shooting 44.3% from the floor. Both meetings last season between these teams went UNDER the number, with combined scores of 181 and 179 points. Miami is 18-6 to the UNDER off a road win over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER Tuesday. |
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11-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -1 | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1
I like the Bulls at home tonight to hand the Portland Trail Blazers their first loss of the season. Portland is clearly an improved team this season, but they don't have an impressive win yet. Their victories have come against the Suns, Clippers and Knicks and this will easily be their toughest test yet. The Blazers are actually shooting better from 3-point range (45.3%) than from the field (45.1%), and obviously those numbers won't last. Portland isn't even a very good team from the perimeter. The Blazers are also without Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla right now, which makes for a lack of depth inside. Chicago is playing great defense in the early going, holding opponents to 39.4% from the floor. But the Bulls are only shooting 21.9% from 3-point range, and obviously that won't last either as they are much better from the perimeter this season with the addition of Kyle Korver. I simply believe the Blazers are overvalued at this point in the season, and this line is a clear reflection of that. Bet the Bulls Monday. |
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10-29-10 | Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 70-96 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
20* Magic/Heat NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando +3.5
There has been a lot of trash talking in the media between the Heat and Magic, and they'll get a chance to go at each other tonight. Orlando has taken exception to the fact that Miami has been tagged the favorites to come out of the East even though the Magic reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year after making the NBA Finals in 2009. They just don't feel like they get the respect they deserve, and as a result this is a very hungry and dangerous team. Orlando put together a perfect preseason by going 7-0 and winning by more than 20 points per game on average. They routed Washington 112-83 in their season-opener as well. "We're trying to take their heads off," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "Honestly, I'm sick of listening every hour about Miami - Miami that, how great they are, how big they are, what kind of record they gonna have,"' said backup center Marcin Gortat. Orlando is 14-3 in their last 17 meetings with Miami, including 7-2 in their last 9 road meetings. The Heat look good on paper, but they haven't proven they are worthy of all this hype yet. I believe Orlando is the better team at this point in the season and will certainly be the more motivated squad tonight. The Magic are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Bet Orlando Friday. |
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10-29-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/76ers OVER 193
These are two guard-led teams which means that I expect a fast-paced shootout in Philadelphia tonight. Atlanta has made some changes to their offense this season to try and get the ball out on the fast break more to take advantage of their athleticism. They did it to perfection in their season-opener against Memphis, beating the Grizzlies 119-104 while shooting 52.5% from the field. They'll push the pace again tonight, and the 76ers are built to run with them with guys like Andre Iguodala. In two meetings in 2010 between the Hawks and 76ers, they combined to score 203 and 205 points. With a total of only 193.5 tonight, the clear value is with the OVER. The OVER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic division. The OVER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast division. Roll with the OVER Friday. |
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10-28-10 | Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic -13.5 | 83-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
15* Wizards/Magic NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Orlando -13.5
The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar this season with all of the hype going to the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. But that's just how they like it. Orlando tips off their season with a blowout win over a depleted Washington Wizards team Thursday night. Washington is down two starters in G Gilbert Arenas who is out with an ankle injury, and F Josh Howard who is out until early December with a knee injury. That leaves John Wall and Andray Blatche as their only legitimate scorers. The Magic have arguably the best starting line-up in the game and also plenty of depth on the bench. The Magic are fully healthy and they'll start Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and the underrated Mickael Pietrus tonight. It's a mismatch across the board in Orlando's favor. The Magic are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Wizards. They won their two most recent meetings with Washington by 14 and 27 points. The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take Orlando Thursday. |
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10-27-10 | Indiana Pacers v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5
The San Antonio Spurs are primed to make a run in the Western Conference this season. They are basically at full strength, with a starting line-up of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferson, Duncan and McDeyess. I believe they will be a force early in the season because they got off to a slow start last year due to injuries. It really cost them, as the Spurs had to settle for the No. 7 seed in the West. They beat Dallas in the opening round, but then were beaten out by Phoenix in the conference semis. Indiana actually got worse in the offseason, which is hard to believe after a 32-50 campaign a year ago. The Pacers have a starting line-up of Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Darren Collison. They have little depth as well, and their best player in Granger is questionable tonight as he deals with an ankle injury. The Spurs are 178-131 ATS in their last 309 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, while the Pacers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the Spurs Wednesday. |
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10-27-10 | Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 | 97-87 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
The Miami Heat are already on a back-to-back situation after losing 80-88 to the Boston Celtics last night. They were dominated inside and on the boards last night, which will be a problem for them all season long. I like the 76ers in this spot in their home opener as it will obviously be a packed house with Lebron James and company coming to town. The 76ers are going to be great this season against guard-led teams like the Heat. That's because they have a starting line-up of Jrue Holliday and Andre Iguodala in the backcourt, and Evan Turner and Louis Williams backing them up. Thaddeus Young is a stud at small forward, and this team is really build to run with anyone. I believe that former 76ers guard Doug Collins is a great coach who will get the most out of this team as he's posted a 332-287 record in his career as a head man. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday. |
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10-26-10 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 110-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
25* NBA Season-Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets +7.5
Kobe Bryant says his knee is only about 75% right now and it was clear through the entire season that he didn't have much elevation. Andrew Bynum will miss the first part of the season. This won't be the same Lakers team we saw in June when they won the NBA Finals. The Lakers are going to be a great team to fade in the early going, especially tonight against an Rockets team that is flying under the radar. Houston welcomes back Yao Ming who is finally healthy, and he has a great nucleus around him with the likes of Louis Scola, Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin. I believe that the Rockets are certainly a sleeper heading into the 2010-11 campaign. The Lakers struggled early in two meetings with the Rockets last season. Houston beat the Lakers 101-91 in L.A., and the Lakers beat the Rockets 103-102 in Houston. I see this one going down to the wire considering the Rockets are at full strength while the Lakers are far from it. Bet Houston Tuesday. |
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10-26-10 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. Boston Celtics | 80-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Miami -1.5
Lebron James and company are hungry to show the world what they are made of, starting with this season-opener against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are filled with old-timers that are past their prime, while the Heat have most of their players right in the middle of their prime. I know Boston will want to make a statement as well, but I just don't believe they have the talent to match up with this Heat team in 2010. Boston went just 21-31 ATS at home last season. The Celtics weren't much better on the road, but they certainly were one of the worst home teams in the league against the spread. The Celtics also have two key players out, with Kendrick Perkins and Delonte West both missing time to start the season. It really takes away from their depth and when you have an old team like Boston, depth is very important. Take the Heat Tuesday. |
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06-17-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -320 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
25* 2010 NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -320
I rarely take an NBA Money Line. That being said, I have 100% confidence the Lakers are going to win Game 7 on their home floor. Los Angeles fought all season to get home-court advantage, and this is where it will pay off just as it did in Game 6. Not only did the Celtics lose Game 6 in blowout fashion, but they lost their starting center in Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers height advantage is huge without him in there, and Boston is a much less physical team without him as well. Perkins suffered torn knee ligaments and head coach Doc Rivers has pronounced him out for the game. Look for L.A. to own the paint tonight, which is a key factor considering every team that has won the rebounding has won each game thus far. No visiting team has won an NBA championship in Game 7 since the Washington Bullets did it in 1978. In the history of the NBA Finals, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game 7's. So as you can see, history is on our side. Los Angeles has been the better team all season, and they will prove it one more time tonight. Boston is stunned right now, and though they'll give their best effort, they just don't have what it takes to match-up with the Lakers. The home crowd will be huge, and just like in Game 6, the Celtics will get nothing from their bench. L.A. will dominate inside, and they have the best closer in the game in Kobe Bryant to finish it off for them if it gets close. But I see the Lakers controlling the game from start to finish in a very decisive victory. I believe the value is there to take the Lakers -320 on the Money Line as 81% of the time the home team has won Game 7 in the Finals, but if you don't think you can lay the juice then feel free to take the Lakers -7 against the spread. I could see this game being decided by single-digits which is why I'm not laying the points, but I cannot see the Lakers losing in this spot. Roll with the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 as my NBA GAME OF THE YEAR! |
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06-15-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 189 | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Lakers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 189
Look for L.A. to clamp it down defensively after allowing the Celtics to shoot better than 56% from the field in Game 5. Even so, Boston still only managed to score 92 points. Both teams would have to average 95 to get the over in Game 6, and I don't see either team getting to that number. These teams know each other inside and out, and that's why as the series has gone on, we have seen some very low-scoring games. The last 3 games in Boston saw 175, 185 and 178 combined points. Expect another defensive battle in Game 6 with what's at stake. This play also falls under a system that is 38-8 (83%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - in the NBA Finals. This is the biggest stage in professional basketball, and 83% of the time the total has been set in this range the UNDER has come through. I have no reason to believe either team is going to magically figure out how to put up a big number on the opposing defense in Game 6. The Lakers are 16-4 to the UNDER after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. L.A. is out of sync offensively right now, but their defense has kept them in this series. Look for that to be the case again tonight in a closely-contested defensive struggle in Game 6 with neither team topping 95 points. Roll with the UNDER. |
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06-13-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Celtics Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +2.5
No team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I don't see it happening in Game 5 tonight, either. The Lakers let a 2-point lead heading into the 4th quarter slip away in Game 4, and I fully expect them to come out and put the Celtics away early tonight, while closing the deal late behind Kobe Bryant. The Celtics aren't going to get the same efforts they did from Baby Davis and Nate Robinson last game. There are clear mismatches across the board in the Lakers favor, and they'll take advantage of them tonight after having 2 days to practice in between games. Phil Jackson is the king of making adjustments, and he'll put his team in the best spot to successful tonight. Kobe did score 33 points in Game 4, but he wasn't aggressive in getting to the rim. He shot very well from the outside, but he knows that his team's best chances of winning are for him to get into the paint and find open teammates to get everyone involved. Kobe will do just that tonight in a complete team effort, and he'll also get his 30 points in the process. Both Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace are each one technical away from getting suspended for a game, which will take away their aggressiveness. The Lakers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games when tied in a playoff series, showing their resilience. Kobe and company step up to the plate again tonight. Bet the Lakers in Game 5. |
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06-10-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Celtics Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 190
With all the pressure of a Game 4 in Boston tonight, don't expect either team to light it up offensively. These teams know each other inside and out, and both have played excellent defense to this point because of it. The Lakers are not getting good shots offensively, but they are making up for it with tremendous defensive effort. Expect a similar combined score as Game 3 where 175 combined points were scored in a 91-84 Lakers' victory. Boston is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Lakers are 9-1 (90%) to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last 6 home games overall. With what's at stake tonight, I fully expect another defensive battle. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4. |
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06-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 91-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers +2.5
I fully expect the Lakers to re-gain home-court advantage tonight. Every time they have been tested in the playoffs, they have responded with a win. Sometimes this team can take nights off like they did against Boston last time out, but after losing Game 2 I expect the Lakers to be on top of their game tonight in Boston. The Lakers have won both meetings in Boston since losing there in 2008, so they have confidence that they can come into this building and get back the home court advantage they lost. Plus, the Celtics haven't been a very good home team this year, losing to both the Cavs and Magic at home in the playoffs. Boston is 31-19 SU & 19-30 ATS at home this season. Kobe got into foul trouble in Game 2 and had to sit out much of the second half. He won't make the same mistake in this one as he knows his team cannot afford to have him sitting on the bench. Kobe plays his best in the face of adversity, and he'll help lead this team to a big performance in Game 3. Also expect more from Lamar Odom and Ron Artest, two players who did not show up in Game 2. Ray Allen will not explode for 32 points again tonight, and Rajon Rondo will not post another triple-double. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. Los Angeles is 36-20 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The road team and the underdog is now 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Lakers in Game 3 as my NBA Finals G.O.T.Y.! |
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06-06-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Lakers Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -6
In other series, it would be a good spot to back the losing Game 1 team in Game 2. But the Lakers are playing this series more motivated than any other series they have played since Kobe Bryant was drafted, and they aren't going to let up in Game 2. The fact of the matter is that this Los Angeles team is better than the '08 one that lost to Boston, with both Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum adding the much-needed toughness that this team lacked. Also, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant are each tougher players since that series loss to the Celtics, while Boston is only 2 years older. That's why the Lakers will be able to sustain their play in Game 2. This play also falls under a system that is 24-5 (83%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 game against Pacific Division opponents. Bet the Lakers in Game 2. |
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06-03-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5
The Lakers are undefeated at home in the playoffs, and they send a message to Boston with a blowout Game 1 home victory tonight. This team has been motivated ever since losing to the Celtics in the '08 NBA Finals, and that hunger carried them to a world title in 2009. It will stay with them in this series with the Celtics and though I'm not saying the Lakers will win this series, I am saying they will own Game 1. Boston is just 1-8 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season. The Celtics are 9-20 ATS in non-conference games this year. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 14.4 PPG. Boston is 6-18 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Roll with the Lakers in Game 1. |
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05-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 215.5 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 215.5
I'm siding with the OVER in Game 6 tonight as 4 of the first 5 games in this series have resulted in 221 or more combined points. The Lakers shot 42% in Game 5 and 29% from the 3-point stripe, and still managed to score 103 points. I cannot see the Suns slowing the Lakers down again like they did in Game 5, only to lose. Phoenix wasn't at their best, either, shooting just 33% from the 3-point line and 46% for the game. I did have the UNDER in Game 5 and predicted a defensive battle, but I am going the other way with Game 6 knowing that there's no way in hell both teams will be as piss-poor offensively again tonight. The key adjustments in this game will be on the offensive end for both teams. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Suns are 37-18 to the OVER in home games off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. It gets even better for the Suns in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival since 1996, as the OVER has gone 11-1 (92%) in this spot. The Lakers are 8-1 to the OVER after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season. Roll with the OVER in Game 6. |
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05-28-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 189 | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
20* Magic/Celtics NBA on ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 189
205 combined points were scored in Game 5, and I see Game 6 being another high-scoring affair. In fact, I am a perfect 3-0 with my totals in this series, hitting the UNDER in Game 1 and the OVER in both Game 4 and Game 5. As this series has gone on, the games have become more high-scoring. The Magic have found out that they must run more to give themselves the best chance to beat Boston. So don't expect Orlando to try and slow down at all tonight. Boston has no problem running the fast break either, and they will look to counter Orlando a little more tonight to try and get easy buckets in transition themselves when the opportunites arise. Boston has scored 92 or more points in their last 16 playoff games, so they been very consistent offensively. The Magic are starting to heat up finally because of the adjustments they have made. Orlando shot 52% in Game 5 en route to 113 points, and I really think this team believes they can come back and win this series so I expect another solid shooting performance in Game 6. Fouls will also play a factor in the OVER as neither team is going to want to just throw in the towel late in the 4th quarter if they are down. This play also falls under a system that is 32-7 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. Over the last 3 seasons, this system has gone 10-1 (91%) to the OVER. Roll with the OVER in Game 6. |
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05-27-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 218 | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
15* on Suns/Lakers UNDER 218
After 4 straight overs in this series, the clear value is on the UNDER in Game 5. This is especially the case after Kobe Bryant voiced his opinion on how bad the Lakers' defense has been in this series, and how they need to put 100% focus into the defensive end and their offense will take care of itself. Look for the best defensive effort of the series from the Lakers tonight which will keep this game UNDER the number. The only reason the over came through in Game 3 and Game 4 was due to fouls in the end by the Lakers as they prolonged the game even though it was basically over. Game 5 is the most important game in this series, and chances are it will decide the series. That's why I look for the effort on the defensive end to be magnified by both teams tonight. The Lakers are 23-8 to the UNDER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 11-1 (92%) to the UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Roll with the UNDER in Game 5. |
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05-26-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic OVER 186 | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
15* on Celtics/Magic OVER 186
The Magic had great success against the Celtics when they pushed the tempo in Game 4. They opened the game outscoring the Celtics 31-26 in the first quarter. But Orlando didn't stick to the game plan the rest of the way, and they were fortunate to win in overtime. In Game 5 at home, I see the Magic forcing the action for four quarters as this becomes the highest-scoring game of the series. Boston was also out of character in Game 4 as they settled for too many bad shots, and Rajon Rondo just quit penetrating Orlando's defense. Look for Rondo to be more aggressive tonight which will lead to easier shots for his teammates. Boston is 10-2 to the OVER after a loss by 6 points or less this season. The Celtics are 46-24 to the OVER in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1996. The OVER is 35-17 in the Celtics' last 52 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the OVER in Game 5. |
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05-25-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 221.5 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
25* Lakers/Suns Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 221.5
After cashing in the OVER in Game 2 and Game 3, I'm going to back the UNDER in Game 4 tonight as this total has simply been inflated. The more times two teams play each other, the more they become familiar with one another. This makes it easier for each squad to be able to stop or at least slow down what each team likes to do offensively. Game 1 finished with a posted total of 210.5, Game 2 finished with a posted total of 216 and Game 3 ended with a Posted Total of 219.5. So this total for Game 4 has been set 11 points higher than Game 1. This just shows the kind of value we are getting with the UNDER tonight in what I think will be a defensive battle. The Lakers are 12-3 to the UNDER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 13-4 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 11-0 in Lakers last 11 games overall as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in Suns last 9 games as a home underdog. All signs point toward a much lower-scoring contest in Game 4 with the pressure amplified as the Lakers try to grab a stranglehold on this series, while the Suns try and even it up at 2-2. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4. |
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05-24-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 187.5 | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
15* on Magic/Celtics OVER 187.5
I am finding a lot of value with the OVER in Game 4 Monday. Yes, the first three games of this series have gone under the posted number, but I don't see this game being played at the same slow pace. Obviously, Orlando has figured out that they cannot afford to get in a half-court game with Boston because they are getting killed right now. I've watched the Magic play numerous times this season, and they are at their best when they run. I look for Orlando to push the tempto in Game 4, and they aren't just going to give up on their season so fouls in the end will also help push the final score of this game OVER the number. This play also falls under a system that is 29-8 (78%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less. The last 8 times the Magic have scored 75 or less points, they have come back with a 6-1-1 OVER record in their next 8 games. The Celtics are 21-6 to the OVER in their last 27 games as a home favorite in the 5.0 to 10.5 range. Bet the OVER in Game 4. |
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05-23-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 218.5 | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 218.5
Now 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series have seen 221 or more combined points. The first two games of this series have seen 235 and 236 combined points, respectively. I expect another high-scoring contest in Game 3 as both teams top the 110 mark. The Suns are 14-2 to the OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 28-14 to the OVER revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0-1 in the Lakers last 6 games overall, while the OVER is 5-1 in the Suns' last 6 overall. Phoenix is 8-0 to the OVER in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the OVER in Game 3. |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic +4 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 71-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
20* Magic/Celtics Game 3 No-Brainer on Orlando +4
The Magic have been one of the best road teams in the league this season, and they aren't going to go quietly in this series. They have plenty of motivation after Paul Pierce's rant after Game 2, saying the Celtics were going to close it out at home. Orlando is 29-16 SU & 25-17 ATS on the road this season. Boston has actually played worse at home than they have on the road, going 29-18 SU & 17-29 ATS. Orlando has won 5 of their last 9 road meetings in Boston over the last 3 seasons. Orlando is 18-4 (82%) ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. A road trip is exactly what Orlando needs to get back into this series. Boston is 8-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 14-3 (82%) ATS in road games after covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. This is the first game the Magic have been an underdog in the postseason, and they are showing their best value of the playoffs in Game 3. Take Orlando Saturday. |
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05-19-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 112-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Suns Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 215.5
The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Lakers last 5 games overall and the OVER is 4-1 in the Suns last 5 games overall. Both teams are hitting on all cylinders offensively. Though I do not expect the Lakers to shoot 58% again in Game 2, Phoenix jus doesn't have an answer for them. The Lakers put up 128 points in Game 1 and there's no reason to believe that Los Angeles won't put up 115-plus against the overmatched Suns tonight. Phoenix scored 107 points in Game 1 and shot 49%. Similar numbers from them can be expected in Game 2 tonight. The Suns and Lakers have combined to score 221 or more points in 6 of their last 8 meetings. When these teams get together, it's pretty easy to predict that a shootout will ensue. The Suns struggle with the Lakers' size inside and they have no answer for Kobe Bryant. The Lakers struggle against the Suns' pick-and-roll offense because Derek Fisher and company cannot stay with Steve Nash and keep him out of the lane consistently. This play falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Get ready for another shootout tonight. Bet the OVER in Game 2. |
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05-18-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -7 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -7
The Orlando Magic played, by far, their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1. The long layoff coupled with the lack of competition in their first two series ended up in a lackluster effort to start this series. Still, Orlando had a legitimate chance to pull off the comeback in the end. They closed to within two points in the closing seconds after trailing by 16 to start the fourth quarter. It's a sign that Orlando can be completely dominant in this series if they just give an average-to-good effort. And there's little doubt that the Magic will come out firing on all cylinders tonight after losin Game 1. The Magic are 66-32-2 ATS in their last 100 games following a S.U. loss. This trend just shows how resilient this team has been over the past few seasons. This play also falls under a system that is 56-20 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (ORLANDO) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. This system is 11-3 this season and 38-13 over the last 3 years as well. Bet Orlando in Game 2 as my NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR. |
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05-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers -6 | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
15* on Los Angeles Lakers -6
The Lakers still hold a grudge against the Suns after losing a couple painful playoff series to Phoenix over the past five years. Kobe and company have not forgotten, and they will want to come out and make a statement in Game 1 tonight that they are the kings of the West now. Even in the regular season this year the Lakers have taken it to the Suns, winning three out of four match-ups. The Lakers have won 4 straight home meetings with Phoenix, and their last 3 victories have come by 20, 19 and 26 points, respectively. The Lakers are 10-1 (91%) ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs this season. This play also falls under a system that is 68-31 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system is 14-6 this season alone. Bet the Lakers in Game 1. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Magic NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 189.5
The UNDER has been a staple when the Celtics and Magic get together recently. The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings and we're seeing a combined average score of just over 175 PPG. In fact, the highest combined point total outcome in the last 8 meetings has been 190 points, with 189 or less in the seven other meetings. So we are getting some nice value with this UNDER in Game 1. Boston has scored 95 or less points in their last 8 meetings with the Magic, averaging 86.4 PPG during this span. Orlando is averaging 89.8 PPG in the last 8 meetings. It's predictable that both teams will get off to slow starts offensively in this one. The Magic are obviously feeling a little rust after their long break since sweeping the Hawks. That doesn't mean they won't be on top of their game defensively. They will make life hard for the Celtics, who just don't have the overall height to get easy looks. Plus Jameer Nelson has the quickness to keep Celtics' point guard Rajon Rondo out of the paint, which will throw Boston out of sync offensively as Rondo has been able to do whatever he wants through the first 2 rounds. Orlando is 8-0 to the UNDER after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in Game 1. |
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05-13-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics -1 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No Doubt Rout on Boston -1
The Cleveland Cavaliers are simply tanking in this series. Lebron James has struggled, but he is being asked to do too much as none of his role players that Cleveland brought in to help him out are stepping up. Once again I don't see it happening in Game 6 tonight in a hostile atmosphere in Boston. The Celtics held a 3-2 lead on Orlando last year in the conference semis before losing the final two games. They know that this Game 6 is like a Game 7 to them, and they do not want to go back to Cleveland so expect the pedal to be to the metal tonight. The Cavaliers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. They have not been able to make the proper adjustments when playing on 1 days' rest. The same cannot be said for Boston, as the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Doc Rivers has been making all the right calls, while Mike Brown is simply getting outcoached in this series. Brown is the new master of panic while Rivers is a cool customer, and his players feed off of it and perform at their best when the going gets tough. I fully expect another blowout victory for the Celtics in Game 6 as they clinch this series. Bet Boston. |
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05-11-10 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194.5 | Top | 120-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
25* Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 194.5
With the series tied 2-2, there's a lot at stake in Game 5 tonight. It will bring out the best defensive efforts in both teams, and you will not see a lapse from the Cavaliers like we did in Game 2, or from the Celtics like we did in Game 3. Both teams will be sharp defensively tonight. There was also a lot at stake in Game 4, where Boston won 97-87 for 184 combined points. Look for the Cavs to take a page from teh Celtics and to come back with their best defensive effort of the series in this one as they try and keep home-court advantage. This play also falls under a system that is 30-11 (73%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. Boston is 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in Game 5. |
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05-10-10 | Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 193 | Top | 98-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
20* Magic/Hawks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta, with combined scores of 180, 170, 169 and 170 points. Once again, the books have set the number much too high in Game 4 tonight between the Magic and Hawks. The Magic are 18-5 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 10-1 to the UNDER after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons. This play also falls under a system that is 27-5 (84%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4. |
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05-09-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers -1 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics ABC No Doubt Rout on Cleveland -1
The Cavs came out flat in Game 2 after winning Game 1, but responded by handing the Celtics their worst home loss of the season in Game 3. Cleveland won 124-95 behind 38 points from Lebron James, and they led by 20-plus points for nearly the entire contest. Look for the Cavs to learn from their Game 2 mistake and to keep the pedal to the metal in Game 4. This play falls under a system that is 28-6 (82%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. It's also worth noting that Boston is 2-10 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The Celtics are no 15-29 ATS in all home games this season and playing in front of their home fans has no proven to be much of an advantage at all this year. Roll with Cleveland in Game 4. |
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05-08-10 | Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 195 | Top | 105-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawks/Magic UNDER 195
The last three meetings in Atlanta have gone UNDER the number, with combined scores of 170, 169 and 170 points. The games in Atlanta are played at a much slower pace than the games in Orlando have been of late. This is because these teams both like to play at different tempos. Orlando likes to push the ball up the court and look to fast break, and at home they are able to control the tempo a lot better. Atlanta likes to get in a half court game with their opposition, and they have been able to do that against Orlando at home. I see no reason they won't be able to slow this game down tonight in front of their home crowd, which gives them a much better shot at beating the Magic. This play also falls under a system that is 26-5 (84%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. This system has gone 3-1 this season and 16-3 over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in Game 3. |
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05-07-10 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | 110-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
15* on San Antonio Spurs -6
The Spurs are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA. They aren't going to just pack it in after falling behind 2-0 to the Suns. Phoenix did what they had to do to protect their home court, and it's only human nature for a team like the Suns to relax in this Game 3 situation. The Spurs are 67-32 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Phoenix is 47-72 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1996. The Spurs are 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. This play falls into a system that is 68-29 (70%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system is 14-4 this season cashing 78% of the time. Bet the Spurs. |
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05-07-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 193 | Top | 124-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Celtics NBA on ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 193
The UNDER is 26-11 in Cavaliers last 37 games following a double-digit loss at home. Look for a much better defensive effort from Cleveland in Game 3 after getting embarrassed on their home floor by the Celtics. The UNDER is 18-6 in Cavaliers last 24 Conference Semifinals games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 Conference Semifinals games as well. Boston also tends to play in low-scoring games following a blowout victory. The Celtics are 28-12 to the UNDER in their last 40 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. This play also falls under a 45-15 (75%) UNDER System over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Roll with the UNDER in Game 3. |
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05-06-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic -9.5 | Top | 98-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
20* Hawks/Magic Thursday Night No-Brainer on Orlando -9.5
The Magic have absolutely owned the Atlanta Hawks, and that won't change tonight. This team is on a mission since losing in the NBA Finals last year, and they know not to let down. Orlando is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Hawks. At home, Orlando is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings while winning by 34, 32, 18 and 43 points. The Hawks cannot match-up with Dwight Howard inside, and having to double team him opens up the 3-pointer for the Magic and Orlando is the best 3-point shooting team in the league. This play also falls under a system that is 33-10 (77%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (ORLANDO) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). They have all the momentum right now and I don't feel the Hawks actually think they can beat this team, which is half the battle. Bet the Magic in Game 2. |
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05-05-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns OVER 205.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Suns NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 205.5
All 4 meetings between the Spurs and Suns this season have gone OVER the number. They are actually going way OVER on average, with combined scores of 220, 223, 213 and 213 points in their last 4 meetings, respectively. The value is still there tonight with the OVER in Game 2 in what is sure to be another hotly-contested showdown where there will be plenty of fouls in the end to also help get this thing OVER the number. The Spurs are 8-0 to the OVER vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts this season. This play also falls under a system that is 36-8 (82%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. This system tells us to bet the OVER on any team (PHOENIX) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. Roll with the OVER in Game 2. |
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05-04-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic -9 | Top | 71-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
20* Hawks/Magic NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Orlando -9
Orlando has simply owned the Atlanta Hawks, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Their last three home meetings haven't even been close, as the Magic have won by 18, 32, and 34 points, respectively. With 8 days' rest in between games, there's no question the Magic will be very hungry in Game 1 tonight. The extra preparation is a huge advantage for Orlando. Meanwhile, the Hawks are only on 1 days' rest and not having the extra time to prepare for Orlando will really hurt them in this series, starting with Game 1. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. Orlando is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. This game has double-digit victory for the Magic written all over it. Take Orlando in Game 1. |
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05-03-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns OVER 203.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Suns NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 203.5
After both the Spurs and Suns played in low-scoring opening round series, the value starting with Game 1 in this series is clearly with the OVER. The Suns went 5-0 UNDER in their final 5 games against Portland, while the Spurs went 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 games against Dallas. As a result, the odds makers have moved this total down well below what it should be set at. The last 5 meetings in this series have seen over 200 combined points. The three meetings this season resulted in 220, 223 and 213 combined points, respectively. Now you can kind of see why I think there is serious value with this OVER tonight. The Suns are 8-1 (89%) to the OVER in home games against Southwest division opponents this season. The average combined score in these games is 224.7 PPG. Bet the OVER. |
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05-02-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -7 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
20* Jazz/Lakers Game 1 No-Brainer on L.A. Lakers -7
The Lakers have won 13 straight home meetings with the Jazz and they are 9-4 ATS in the process. This is a terrible match-up for Utah without Mehmet Okur and with Andrei Kirilenko sidelined for the first few games at least. Utah matched up well with Denver because they had the advantage in the paint with Boozer and Millsap. Both players used their quickness to get easy buckets. That won't happen against the Lakers, who can throw three players at the Jazz that are all 6-11 or taller. They include Gasol, Bynum and Odom. So if Boozer of Millsap gets by one of these players, there's always another 7-footer ready to clean up inside. This play also falls under a system that is 67-29 (70%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Take the Lakers in Game 1. |
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05-01-10 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 191.5 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 191.5
The Cavs and Celtics know each other like the back of their hands. This favors a defensive battle not only in Game 1, but throughout this series. The Celtics are 16-5 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average combined score in these games is 181.1 PPG. This play also falls under a system that is 46-21 (69%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in Game 1. |
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04-30-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189.5 | Top | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 189.5
In what is a huge Game 6 for both teams, defense will reign supreme tonight. Both of these young teams will come out tight with what's at stake which will lead to poor offense, but the defensive effort will be there for both clubs. I fully expect this game to be played similar to Game 5 where Milwaukee won 91-87 for 178 combined points. This play falls under a system that is 46-19 (71%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in April games. Bet the UNDER. |
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04-29-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -1 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers -1
The Portland Trail Blazers responded with a 96-87 win in Game 4 to avoid going down 3-1. In another spot of adversity, the Blazers will use their home-court advantage tonight in Game 6 to send this to a Game 7. Brandon Roy is expected to start and this will allow him to get in a much better rhythm. The Phoenix Suns lack the killer instinct it takes to go out and close out Portland, knowing that they have a Game 7 at home in their back pocket. The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, while the favorite is 17-7-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 home meetings with Phoenix. Portland is 8-1 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The Blazers are 30-13 ATS after playing a road game this season. Portland is 8-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders this season. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Blazers are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet Portland as my Opening Round G.O.T.Y.! |
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04-28-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Atlanta Hawks -9 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
20* Bucks/Hawks NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Atlanta -9
The Hawks simply do not lose to the Bucks at home. Over the last 3 seasons, the Hawks are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS when playing Milwaukee at home. That includes back-to-back double-digits wins in this series. It's amazing how they continue to fail to play as a team on the road, but at home this squad works together as well as any team in the league. They have fed off their home crowd all season long, posting 36-7 SU & 27-16 ATS record in Atlanta. Atlanta is 13-3 (81%) ATS in home games after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are winning by 11.1 PPG in these spots. They played too much 1-on-1 baskeball in Milwaukee, but they'll get back to sharing the rock tonight. Bet Atlanta |
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04-27-10 | Miami Heat +7 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
20* Heat/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +7
The Heat proved that they aren't giving up in this series with a big Game 4 victory. Dwyane Wade is always at his best with his back against the wall in these playoffs. When he won a championship, his team fell in a 2-0 hole to the Mavs before going on to win 4 straight games. I have no doubt that he still thinks Miami can come back and win this series, and they will not fold in Game 5. Boston is just 14-28 ATS in all home games this season and once again they are being overvalued Tuesday. This play falls under a system that is 46-20 (70%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games. This is an inflated line tonight. Take Miami. |
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04-26-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 202 | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Suns OVER 202
Great value with the OVER in this Game 5 match-up between the Suns and Blazers. Phoenix gets to play at their pace at home, while the Blazers get to play at their pace at home as well. That's just how it has worked thus far in this series and with Phoenix playing at home in Game 5 this will be a much higher-scoring affair. Off a loss in Game 4 where the play was slowed to a snail's pace, look for the Suns to learn from it and come out guns-a-blazing tonight in Game 5. Phoenix is 21-9 to the OVER in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Better yet, the Suns are 22-6 (79%) to the OVER in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these games is Phoenix 114.3 and their opponents 106.5 for better than 220 combined points/game. When ever this team hits the road for a couple games and returns home, they always bring a ton of energy to the floor as they feed off of their home fans. It doesn't necessarily help their defense, but it certainly helps their offense as they push the pace. Roll with the OVER in Game 5. |
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04-25-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls +6 | Top | 121-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
20* Cavs/Bulls NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Chicago +6
Chicago is showing excellent value Sunday as a big home dog to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss, so they really haven't been resilient bouncing back from losses recently. The Cavs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. This play also falls under a system that is 41-14 (75%) since 1996. It tells us to be on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's). Take the Bulls. |
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04-24-10 | Los Angeles Lakers +2 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 89-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
15* BAILOUT on Los Angeles Lakers +2
The Lakers have now lost 5 straight Game 3's in their last 5 series. So it should come as no surprise that they lost a game to the Thunder, and there's no question they come out with an edge tonight and get after it more than they did in Game 3. It's just their nature to relax in those games as they usually find themselves up 2-0. L.A. settled for 31 three-point attempts in that Game 3 loss and really played out of character. Look for them to attack the paint and to get Gasol, Bynum and Odom more involved inside. Kobe will also be looking to get to the rim tonight instead of settling for outside jumpers. The Lakers are 33-19 ATS as an underdog of the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are just 2-10 ATS in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Finally, L.A. is 14-2 SU in their last 16 meetings with the Thunder. Take the Lakers. |
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04-24-10 | Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 184.5 | Top | 90-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Bobcats UNDER 184.5
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte. The UNDER is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings overall. Defensive effort will be at a max in this all-important Game 3 tonight. These teams combined to score 169 points in Game 3 and a similar final combined score will result Saturday. The Magic are 20-11 to the UNDER as a road favorite this season. Charlotte is 13-5 to the UNDER after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Bobcats last 12 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 28-13-2 in Magic last 43 games as a favorite. Roll with the UNDER in Game 3. |
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04-23-10 | Denver Nuggets +2 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 93-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Denver +2
Denver just gave away their game against Utah in Game 2. They'll come back and steal Game 3 in Salt Lake City tonight. The Jazz are overmatched due to injuries, with Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko both down. Denver took the Jazz lightly because of these injuries, but they will not make the same mistake again. Look for the Nuggets' best effort of the series in Game 3 as they know they now have to win a game in Utah to extend this series. Denver is 32-14 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 14-2 ATS after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Denver won in Utah earlier this year by a final of 105-95. After a poor defensive performance in Game 3, they'll lock it down on this end of the floor. Denver will also look to go inside to take advantage of the Jazz lack of big men instead of settling for so many jump shots. They'll be in attack mode all game, which is precisely what they need to do to win Game 3. Take the Nuggets. |
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks +3.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
25* Western Conference Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +3.5
The Mavs completely failed to show up for Game 2. They are frustrated over losing home court, and they'll bring their best effort to the floor tonight in San Antonio to re-gain it. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 8.2 PPG. This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league when going on the road following and upset loss. Dallas is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with San Antonio. It was a very rare loss for the Mavs against the Spurs in Game 2, and it won't happen again in Game 3. The Spurs just don't have the depth to match up with the Mavs, and they have nobody to guard Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavs' big man was passive in Game 2, but he'll come back and assert himself in Game 3 similar to his 36-point performance in Game 1. Dallas gets the job done tonight. Bet the Mavs in Game 3. |
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04-22-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 204.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Suns/Blazers OVER 204.5
6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen 205 or more combined points. The Suns continue pushing the tempo tonight as they know that playing at a fast pace is their best chance to win. The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meeetings in Portland. The fact that these teams typically play in high-scoring games gives us plenty of value on the OVER here tonight with a total of less than 205. Phoenix is 17-5 to the OVER in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 11-3 to the OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. The OVER is 14-3 in the Suns' last 17 Thursday night games as well. Look for Phoenix to put up another big number like the 119 they scored in Game 2, and for Portland to stay right with them with a much better offensive effort tonight in the comfort of their home building. Roll with the OVER. |
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04-21-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 102-88 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Mavs NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -3.5
Dallas just has San Antonio's number, and that won't change in Game 2. The Spurs shot 50% from the field and 86% from the charity stripe in Game 1, and still lost 100-94. They couldn't have played much better, and it's just a sign that they are far past their prime. Duncan, Ginobli and Parker all had spectacular games, but the Spurs just aren't getting any help elsewhere. That's where the advantage goes to the Mavs who are very deep, and they even bring Jason Terry off the bench, a player who would start on almost any other team. The Spurs have no one to guard Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 36 points on just 14 field goal attemps in Game 1. Dallas is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with San Antonio. The Mavs are 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings with the Spurs. This play also falls under a system that is 22-4 (85%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Mavs should be a much heavier favorite tonight. Bet Dallas. |
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04-20-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | 92-95 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
15* BAILOUT on L.A. Lakers -6.5
The Lakers did not put together nearly their best effort in Game 1, and still managed to lead virtually the entire way and win by 8 points. Their defensive effort will be solid once again with Andrew Bynum back in the line-up, but look for the Lakers to be much sharper offensively in Game 2. The Lakers shot just 41% from the floor in Game 1. They will go inside more this game to take advantage of the huge size differential working in their favor with the likes of Gasol, Bynum and Odom in the paint. It will lead to higher percentage shots and easy buckets because the Thunder's biggest weakness is their lack of a post presence. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. This young Thunder team remains shell-shocked by the atmosphere in L.A. and they won't get over it in time to perform at their best in Game 2. The Lakers are champions, and they will go for the jugular to try and put this young Oklahoma City team away early. They don't want to give them any confidence when this series shifts to OKC. Bet the Lakers at home. |
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04-20-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics OVER 179 | Top | 77-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
25* NBA #1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics OVER 179
This total has been set way too low due to the nature of the Heat/Celtics Game 1. That game resulted in an 85-76 Boston victory for 161 combined points. With Kevin Garnett serving a 1-game suspension, it changes the entire complexion of this game. The Celtics lose defense, which will allow the Heat to be much more effective on offense without Garnett's presence in the post. But the Celtics can get out and run more now that they don't have to go through Garnett, and this will be a much faster-paced contest as a result in Game 2. This play also falls under a system that is 34-7 (83%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less. This system is 10-2 over the last 3 seasons and 19-4 over the last 5 years. The value is clearly with the OVER in this game after the nature of Game 1, a much lower-scoring game than the odds makers anticipated. This one will have gone OVER the number with nearly 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter in my estimation. Take the OVER. |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 212 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
20* NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 212
The Jazz and Nuggets have been high-scoring machines when they get together. Now, with Mehmet Okur out, the Jazz are forced to go with an even small line-up. This will help them get up and down faster offensively and will produce more points, but they aren't going to be able to guard the Nuggets in the post without Okur. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, with a combined score of 218 or more points in the five OVERS. They combined for 239 points in Game 1 so there is still some serious value with this OVER tonight. This play also falls under a system that is 25-6 (81%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Roll with the OVER in Game 2. |
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04-19-10 | Chicago Bulls +11 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
15* on Chicago Bulls +11
The Bulls settled down in the second half of Game 1 against Cleveland and actually made a game out of it, eventually losing by 13 points. Chicago now has the confidence to know that they can play with the Cavaliers when they look at their effort in the second half. They dug themselves a huge hole early and didn't show up in the first quarter, so don't expect the Bulls to make that same mistake again. The Bulls are 13-5 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Chicago is 10-2 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists this season. Look for Chicago to move the ball much better tonight to take some of the pressure of of Derek Rose, who is fully capable of leading this team to victory. This play also falls under a system that is 109-57 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, with a losing record. Take Chicago in Game 2. |
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04-18-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns -8 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
25* NBA Opening Round No-Brainer of the Year on Phoenix Suns -8
The Suns are an absolute No-Brainer Sunday as they host the Brandon Roy-less Portland Trail Blazers. Not only is Phoenix the hottest team in the Western Conference since the All-Star break, but not Portland has to try and be competitive without their superstar. It's simply not going to happen. Portland now lacks a pure scorer that can get easy buckets when plays break down. This is going to be a lopsided blowout from start to finish as the Suns continue playing stellar basketball. Phoenix is 16-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Suns are also 16-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season. The Suns are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. A Double-digit blowout is in session. Take the Suns. |
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04-17-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics -4 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4
The Celtics should be a much heavier favorite at home against the Miami Heat Saturday. Yes, the Celtics have not been playing their best basketball, but this is still a 50-game winner and they will certainly step up their game for the playoffs. Boston is finally healthy and ready to make another run, starting with Game 1 Saturday. Miami has won 12 of their last 13 games, but only 2 of those victories came against teams with a winning record. Boston is 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS against Miami over the last 3 seasons, including a 5-0 home mark when facing the Heat. This is a very tough match-up for Miami because the Celtics know how to stop the Heat. The key is making other players beat them besides Dwayne Wade, and that's precisely what they will do in this series. The Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Boston. |
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04-09-10 | Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets +7.5 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Hornets +7.5
Good value here with the Hornets. New Orleans will be fired up to play the Jazz, a playoff team in the Western Conference. Utah is 2-11 ATS in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are 6-19 ATS in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Utah is 7-20 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. New Orleans is 28-14 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are looking for some payback here after losing to the Jazz by 20 points on the road last meeting. Take the Hornets. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5 | Top | 96-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
25* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 203.5
The Lakers and Nuggets have combined to score 200 or more points in 7 of their last 10 meetings overall. Denver is 15-4 OVER in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 22-9 OVER in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. These teams typically play in high-scoring affairs. This is a very low total and the clear value in this game is with the OVER. Bet the OVER Thursday. |
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04-07-10 | San Antonio Spurs +7 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
20* Wednesday NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on San Antonio Spurs +7
The Spurs are simply catching too many points tonight. San Antonio is 16-5 SU & 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games while beating the likes of Boston, Orlando and the L.A. Lakers. San Antonio knows they have a great chance to gain more ground in the Western Conference with upcoming games against the Suns, Nuggets and Mavs. They will try and take full advantage as they continue playing their best basketball of the season. I cannot see the Suns running away with this game like this line would indicate. The Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 in this series and they match-up very well with Phoenix. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference foes. San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Suns are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Phoenix had been on a pretty good run before losing to the Bucks. This long break will only hurt the Suns. The underdog is also 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take San Antonio. |
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04-06-10 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -4 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
25* NBA No Doubt Rout of the Year on Memphis Grizzlies -4
The home team has won 7 of the last 8 in this series between the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets, winning by 10 or more points each time. So home-court advantage has certainly been huge here, resulting in double-digits blowouts 7 out of 8 times. Houston is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are battling through injuries right now that they are just not able to overcome. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. This is a very generous line as the Grizzlies are asked to lay a small number against the Rockets Tuesday. This play also falls under a system that is 53-22 (71%) since 1996. It tells us to play against any team (HOUSTON) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games. Houston has quit playing defense, giving up 119, 114 and 133 points in their last 3 games, respectively. Memphis has scored 102 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games overall. Bet the Grizzlies. |
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04-04-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers -5 | 100-81 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Spurs/Lakers NBA on ABC ANNIHILATOR on L.A. Lakers -5
The Lakers have had the Spurs' number, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with San Antonio. The Lakers' size in the middle continues giving San Antonio fits, and the Spurs also don't have an answer for Kobe Bryant defensively with Bruce Bowen no longer around. The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with San Antonio overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings. This play also falls under a system that is 63-26 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Spurs are getting way too much respect from the odds makers tonight with this small spread. Roll with the Lakers. |
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04-03-10 | Portland Trail Blazers -6 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 98-87 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Motivational Mismatch on Portland Trail Blazers -6
The Blazers are trying desperately to avoid finishing in 8th place in the Western Conference standings, because they certainly do not want to play the Lakers in the first round. Portland is also coming off a 17-point loss at Denver on Thursday night, so they will be highly motivated Saturday when they travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Blazers have still one 9 of their last 11 games overall, with their only losses coming against the Suns and Nuggets on the road, two of the top teams in the West. Sacramento has little to play for at the end of the season, so it's hard for them to be motivated to come to play each night. The Kings are also trying to get their reserves more playing time to give them more of a look heading into next season, putting Sacramento at a disadvantage talent-wise. The Kings have lost 6 straight games, all by 7 points or more. This play also falls under a system that is 37-9 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. These good teams always tend to bounce back in a big way following an ugly loss, and that's what I expert Portland to do Saturday. Roll with the Blazers. |
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04-02-10 | Phoenix Suns -8.5 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -8.5
The Suns are simply rolling right now and I'll continue riding them tonight against a Detroit Pistons' team that has packed it in. Phoenix is 9-0 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Meanwhile, Detroit is 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing by double-digits six times. Phoenix has more to play for and they will continue dominating tonight. Detroit is giving several below-average players playing time to see what they can do for them heading into next season. This play also falls under a system that is 51-16 (76%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, second half of the season. The Suns have scored 110 or more points in 8 of their last 9 games, and Detroit will have a hard time putting up 100 in this one as they've scored 81 and 83 points in 2 of their last 3 home games. Take the Suns. |
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04-02-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 191 | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
15* on Bulls/Wizards UNDER 191
Look for the Bulls to amp up their defense tonight against the Washington Wizards, team that really struggles to score the basketball but also a team that does play solid defense. Washington has scored 99 or less points in 18 straight games. Worse yet, the Wizards have scored 89 or less points in 12 of those 18 points. With what's at stake for Chicago as they try to make one final push for a playoff spot, I see the Bulls holding the Wizards to under 90 in this one as well. The Wizards are 22-6 to the UNDER in the second half of the season this season. This play also falls under a system that is 55-23 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog, in April games. Roll with the UNDER. |
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04-01-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 199 | Top | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
20* NBA on TNT Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Nuggets OVER 199
With a total set of less than 200 points, there is some serious value here with the OVER. The last two meetings in this series saw 203 and 224 combined points, respectively. The only meeting in Denver this season saw the 224 combined points with a 118-106 victory by the Nuggets. Portland likes to slow it down a little, while Denver likes to push the tempo. With the Nuggets playing at home, they will control the tempo and speed the game up which will result in both teams scoring more than 100 points again. The OVER is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings in Denver, so they have been able to push the tempo when hosting the Blazers. Denver is 27-13 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average combined score in these games is 212.6 PPG. Portland is 14-6 to the OVER as a road underdog this season. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The OVER is 7-2 in the Blazers' last 9 road games. Take the OVER. |
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03-31-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 203 | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Grizzlies OVER 203
We have two teams here that are averaging more than 100 PPG and two that are also giving up 100 PPG, so there is some value with this OVER. Dallas is scoring 110 PPG in their last 2 games while the Grizzlies are scoring 109.5 PPG over their last 4 contests. Dallas is a superb 10-1 OVER after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The Mavs are 14-4 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. This play also falls under a system that is 35-10 (78%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, vs. division opponents. Roll with the OVER. |
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03-31-10 | Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons +7 | 98-81 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
15* on Detroit Pistons +7
The Detroit Pistons have plenty of reason to get motivated for this game Wednesday. Detroit scored 42 points after the first quarter in a 92-65 loss to the Miami Heat in their last meeting back on January 29th. "After a performance like (that), there's just a loss of words," guard Ben Gordon said following that defeat, one of the Pistons' nine losses by at least 20 since Dec. 23. "I don't know why we're not able to go out there and at least give 100 percent effort, regardless of whatever else happens." Look for the Pistons to get after it tonight after one of their worst losses of the season to the Heat last meeting. This play also falls under a system that is 49-19 (72%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on underdogs (DETROIT) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Miami is getting too much respect here. Bet the Pistons. |
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03-31-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics -3 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -3
The Celtics have had 2 days' rest to steam over their loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday, falling 73-94 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Boston is going to come out tonight with a fire lit up their asses, and they'll certainly be the fresher team as the Oklahoma City Thunder just played last night in Philadelphia. The Celtics, who defeated the Thunder 105-87 on the road Dec. 4, have won six straight meetings in this series - outscoring the Oklahoma City franchise by an average of 17.0 points in that span. The Celtics have also won nine of the last 10 matchups between these clubs in Boston. Seven Celtics scored in double figures in the December meeting, led by Garnett's 23 and Pierce's 21. This play falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (BOSTON) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Take the Celtics. |
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03-30-10 | Los Angeles Clippers +11 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on L.A. Clippers +11
The Milwaukee Bucks should not be a double-digit favorite against anyone in this league. They went on a huge run in February and early March, but as a result they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the odds makers alike. This team has played 4 straight home games, beating Atlanta by 3 and beating Memphis by 5 in overtime. They lost to the 76ers by 15 and lost to the Heat by 13. The Bucks are not 11 points better than the Clippers here. Milwaukee is 12-31 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1996. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. The Clippers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. Eastern Conference foes. This play also falls under a system that is 49-18 (73%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Bet the Clippers |
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03-29-10 | Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets +5.5
The Denver Nuggets have owned the Dallas Mavericks in this head-to-head series. Denver trails the Mavericks by a half-game in the Western Conference standings, so they really want this game tonight. The Nuggets are 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Dallas overall, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road meetings. This is the final game on a 5-game road trip for Denver, and they've gone 1-3 through their first four. There's no question this is a hungry Nuggets' team right now after they way they've played of late. Dallas has not beaten a team with a winning record since March 1st. The Mavs are 7-27 ATS as a home favorite this season. Dallas is 0-9 ATS versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting >=30 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Bet the Nuggets. |
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03-28-10 | Golden State Warriors +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 121-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
15* on Golden State Warriors +7
The Clippers should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league. They especially shouldn't against Golden State as the Warriors are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with L.A. The Clippers are 4-14 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Golden State always seems to get run out of the building by these teams, and they did the last time they met up with the Warriors, losing by a final of 102-132. This play also falls under a system that is 26-4 (87%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. After a blowout loss to Dallas yesterday, this line has been inflated. Take the Warriors showing serious line value. |
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03-27-10 | Los Angeles Lakers -6 v. Houston Rockets | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
15* on L.A. Lakers -6
The Lakers were embarrassed last night against the Thunder, and I fully expect them to take it out on the Houston Rockets Saturday. L.A. lost to the Thunder 75-91 after falling behind by 19 at the half. Houston has some injury concerns that will prevent them from even being competitive tonight. Shane Battier is out until early April, and he is always the one that guards Kobe Bryant and does as good of a job as anyone in the league against Kobe. Kevin Martin is questionable with a shoulder injury tonight as well, and Jared Jeffries is doubtful. This plays falls under a system that is 35-9 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Bet the Lakers. |
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