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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills -124 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Bills 4:25 PM ET Game# 325-326 Play On: Bills -124 Dallas enters this contest on a red-hot 5-game win streak which has improved their season record to 10-3. However, their home/away splits are worth noting. The Cowboys are 7-0 at home but a mediocre 3-3 on the road. Furthermore, their 3 road wins have come over the Chargers, Jets, and Carolina who have a current combined record of 11-29 (.275). They also lost at Arizona (3-10) as a double-digit favorite when the Cardinals starting quarterback was out due to injury. The Bills are coming off a win at Kansas City last week to improve to 7-6 which improved their postseason chances. Nevertheless, they’re still on the outside looking in while being imperative they continue to play with the urgency and desperation exhibited last week at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season but their 6 losses have come by just a combined 26 points and none of those was greater than 6 points. That further clarifies why a 7-6 team is favorite over an opponent who’s 10-3. The weather conditions on Sunday will call on both teams to run the ball more than they’re accustomed to. The Bills have run the ball very well over their last 4 contests while averaging 153.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. The Bills have also limited their opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in 5 of their last 7 games. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Buffalo is 19-6 (76%) as a money line home favorite. Buffalo has averaged 408.3 yards of total offense per game over their previous 3 contests. Buffalo is a perfect 5-0 SU at home since the start of the 2021-2022 season after averaging 400 yards or more of total offense during their previous 3 games and outscored their opponents by a substantial 20.8 points per outing. Give me Buffalo for a money line wager. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
I used Boston on Friday night as a home favorite over Orlando and they easily won and covered. I'm coming right back with them today. The Celtics are 13-0 SU and 8-3-2 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. The Celtics have shot 50% or better in 8 of their last 10 at home. Conversely, Orlando is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away and allowed opponents to score 121 points or more and shoot 50% or better on each occasion. Orlando is a terrific 11-1 at home this season but just 5-7 on the road. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Bears @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Browns -2.5 The Bears are getting a lot of love from bettors this week after going 3-1 in their last 4 and covering on each occasion. However, let’s not get carried away. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Baltimore in a game that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch and was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who was brutal. With Watson gone for the year due to injury, the Browns signed veteran Joe Flacco off the couch and in 3 has played more than respectable. Additionally, the Browns defense has been sensational in their 7 contests at home while allowing a mere 12.6 points and 192.4 yards per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 It will be unseasonably warm in Green Bay with little chance of rain and winds below 10 MPH. That’s good news and a pleasant surprise for a warm weather team like Tampa Bay playing at Green Bay in December. The key to the Bucs covering and giving them a strong possibility of winning this game outright will be their ability to run the ball effectively. Hence, opening up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities for Baker Mayfield and company. Green Bay’s run defense has been brutal despite them making a midseason postseason push. During their previous 5 contests, the Green Bay defense has allowed 170.4 yards per game on the ground and an alarmingly high 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs running game was anemic for most of this season. However, during their last 3 outings they’ve rushed for 133.7 yards per game and averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay enters this week in a 3-way tie atop the NFC South Division. The Bucs have been very profitable on the road this season while going 6-1 ATS. Green Bay had their bubble burst and 3-game win streak halted in last Monday’s 24-22 road loss to the New York Giants. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Texans @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Texans +3.5 Yes, C.J. Stroud will not play for Houston this week after suffering a concussion during last Sunday’s 30-6 road loss to the Jets. However, his backup Davis Mills was the Texans starter the previous 2 seasons and is more than capable of giving them an reasonable opportunity to win and especially so against a below average team like Tennessee. You may be surprised to know that Houston has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 SU&ATS in division road game since the start of the 2021-2022 season. That includes a 37-17 blowout win over Jacksonville in their only division road game this season. Keep in mind, that means Davis Mills was 5-1 SU&ATS as a starter in division road games the past 2 seasons. Since Week 3, Houston is 4-0 SU following a loss. Tennessee is coming off last Monday’s huge 28-27 upset win over Miami in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. Nonetheless, the Titans haven’t won 2 in a row all season and are 0-4 SU&ATS following a win. Lastly, the visiting teams are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games between these division rivals. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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12-16-23 | California +3 v. Texas Tech | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
California vs. Texas Tech 9:15 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: California +3.0 When it comes to minor bowl games such as this, it’s just a matter of what team is more motivated. I firmly believe that the team will be California in this matchup. There were high expectations for Texas Tech heading into the season being that they had 17 returning starters including all 11 on offense from a team that went 8-5 the year before. But they finished regular season action with a very uninspiring 6-6 record to barely qualify for postseason action. On the other hand, not much was expected from California heading into the year and it came as no surprise that they were 3-6 through their first 9 games. However, the finished their regular season slate by going 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 including a pair of road wins to close out the campaign over Stanford and UCLA which made them bowl eligible. I look for an inspired effort from the Golden Bears in this one. They key to victory will be California being able to run the ball with a high degree of success. Throughout their last 3 contests, Texas Tech allowed 207 yards or more on the ground during each occasion, and opponents averaged an alarmingly high 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Cal averaged an impressive 182.7 yards per game on the ground this season and a healthy 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Give me California plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Alabama v. Creighton -7 | 82-85 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Creighton 8:00 PM ET Game# 689-690 Play On: Creighton -7.0 No College Basketball analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA -5.5 v. Boise State | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Boise State @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: UCLA -5.5 This game will almost be like a home game for UCLA with it being played at So-Fi Stadium in Los Angeles. Boise State’s starting quarterback Taylen Green entered the transfer portal following the Broncos MWC Championship Game win over UNLV. The Broncos are set to start freshmen C.J. Tiller at quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass this season. Boise State will rely on their ground attack and star running back Ashton Jeanty who ran for 1262 yards this season. However, he’ll be facing a UCLA defense that was 5th nationally in rushing defense at 68.6 yards per game. The Bruins starting cornerbacks entered the transfer portal, but I would be more concerned if Boise State had a more experienced signal caller than C.J. Tiller. Give me UCLA minus points. |
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12-16-23 | Steelers +2 v. Colts | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Colts 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Steelers +2.0 The Pittsburgh quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired with backup Mitchell Trubisky under center. However, the Steelers running game will be the difference in this matchup. During their previous 7 contests the Colts have allowed an alarmingly high 147.0 yards rushing per game in addition to 4.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, throughout their previous 6 contests the Steelers have rushed for 151.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. The Steelers ability to run the ball effectively will set up some favorable play action passing opportunities for Trubisky and take a huge load off his shoulders. Furthermore, the Steelers are 2-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-division away underdog. Additionally, the Colts are 5-2 this season in neutral site and away games but a poor 2-4 at home. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU&ATS on the road when the point-spread is between +3.0 and -3.0. On the other hand, during that identical time span, the Colts are 4-8 SU&ATS at home when the point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Once again since the 2021-2022 season consummated, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 3.0 or less. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Miami-OH v. Appalachian State -6.5 | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio vs. Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Appalachian State -6.5 This opening line and the ensuing movement speak volumes to me. We have an Appalachian State team who was blown out in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by Troy as currently better than a touchdown favorite the MAC champion Miami-Ohio Red Hawks. Truth be told, the Sun Belt was far and away better than the MAC this season from top to bottom. There were 10 of 12 Sun Belt teams that were bowl eligible and the MAC was extremely top heavy and with a lot of bad teams. Despite that loss to Troy, the Mountaineers enter the bowl season 8-5 and with their other 4 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. Miami was terrific defensively during conference play while allowing just 12.0 points per game. However, in 3 non-conference games versus FBS opponents the Red Hawks surrendered 30.0 points and 445.7 yards per game. The Redhawk’s offense leaves much to be desired. Throughout their previous 6 contests they averaged only 21.5 points scored and 281.0 yards gained per game. They’re going to be facing a Mountaineers offense that averages 34.8 points scored and 452.2 yards gained per game. Give me Appalachian State minus points. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA v. Ohio State -125 | 60-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
UCLA vs. Ohio State 3:00 PM ET Game# 635-636 Play On: Ohio State -125 No College Basketball analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-16-23 | Texas A&M +7.5 v. Houston | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas A&M @ Houston 2:30 PM ET Game# 631-632 Play On: Texas A&M +7.5 No College Basketball analysis today due to time constraints. |
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12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bengals -3.0 Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season due to injury. However, I give a huge edge to Cincinnati when it comes to the backup quarterback situation. Jake Browning will be making his 4th start since taking over for Joe Burrow. During his first 3 starts he’s been nothing short of superb with all be considered while completing 79.3% for 856 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. The Bengals are coming off a pair of wins over the Colts 34-14 and 34-31 at Jacksonville as a 10.0-point underdog. Conversely, the Vikings escaped with a 3-0 win at Las Vegas last Sunday. It was the 2nd straight listless offensive performance for Minnesota who 2 weeks ago lost 12-10 at home to Chicago. Cincinnati is 4-1 in non-division home game this season. Cincinnati has also been very good at protecting the football this season while committing just 11 turnovers through 13 games. That hasn’t been the case for Minnesota who has committed 24 turnovers this season. Finally, under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS in regular season games 13 through 17. Give me the Bengals minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Knicks v. Suns -4.5 | 139-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Knicks @ Suns 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Suns -4.5 I faded the Suns on Wednesday against Brooklyn and cashed that winning ticket. Nonetheless, I am betting on them tonight and without the least bit of hesitancy. This will be just the 2nd time this season that Phoenix will have their terrific trio of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant all available at the same time. I look for that to be a more telling factor than the debut in Wednesday’s home loss. Besides, the Knicks are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and were outcored by an average of 12.7 points per game. New York’s defensive play has been horrible throughout their previous 5 contests as they allowed 126.4 points per game and opponents shot a combined 49.4% which includes 39.4% from 3-point territory. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -5.5 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Magic @ Celtics 7:40 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Celtics -5.5 Despite Orlando beating Boston 4 consecutive times dating back to last season and being a vastly improved team this season with a current record of 16-7, they still find themselves as a sizable road underdog in this spot. I find this current point-spread to be justified and am not swayed by the Magic’s recent success versus Boston. Keeping Orlando’s fast start to this 2023-2024 campaign into perspective, they’ve done much of their damage at home where they’re 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. On the road they’re a mediocre 5-6 SU. Conversely, Boston is 12-0 SU at home with a dominating average victory margin of 15.3 points per game. Give me the Celtics minus points. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers v. Wizards +9 | 123-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Wizards 7:10 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Wizards +9.0 To be a successful sports bettor there are times it requires making an uncomfortable wager. This is a textbook example of such. The Wizards are a terrible team that comes into this Eastern Conference matchup with an abysmal 3-20 record. However, this sets up to be a favorable situation to get inside this sizable number as a home underdog. One thing that’s been respectable for Washington has been their play on the offensive side of the floor. The Wizards have averaged 115.2 points scored per game and shot 48.2% from the field this season. The major weakness of an otherwise impressive young Pacers team is their shoddy defensive play. That’s especially evident when Indiana is on the road where they’re allowing 132.6 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot a blistering 52.6% from the field. Furthermore, over their last 5 road games, Indiana has allowed 137.2 points per outing and all those opponents shot 53% or better from the field. Lastly, Indiana is coming off a 140-126 divisional loss at Milwaukee, and they’re 0-7 ATS following a divisional game this season. It’s also worth noting, they were outscored in those 7 contests by a substantial margin of 14.5 points per game. Give me the Wizards plus points. |
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12-14-23 | Thunder v. Kings -120 | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Thunder vs. Kings 10:10 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Kings -120 (ML) The Kings are coming off Tuesday’s 119-99 road loss to the Clippers. Sacramento has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a loss and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Sacramento is also a solid 7-2 SU in their last 9 at home. These teams met once this season and Sacramento walked off with a 105-98 home win. Any NBA home team like the Kings that’s coming off a division loss by 10 points or more and they’re facing an opponent playing with same season revenge, resulted in those home teams going 55-19 SU (74.3%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Give me the Kings on the money line. |
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12-14-23 | Nets v. Nuggets OVER 230 | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Nets vs. Nuggets 9:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Over 230.0 The Nets have played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 whenever the number was 238.0 or less and they went under in their previous game. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 250.6 points scored per game. This recent trend certainly comes into play tonight since Brooklyn won 116-112 at Phoenix last night and the game went under the total of 231.5. Additionally, this will be only the 3rd time this season that Brooklyn will be playing with no rest and they went over in the previous 2 occurrences with a combined 232.5 points scored per game. It’s also worth noting, teams that have played Denver with no rest this season saw 4 of those 5 contests go over the total. Furthermore, the Nets have scored 114 points or more in 8 straight games. Brooklyn has made an excellent 41.7% of their 3-point shot attempts on the road while averaging 15 makes per contest. Denver has played 4-0 to the over in their last 4 whenever the total was 228.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 245.5 points scored per game. The Nuggets are averaging a healthy 120.2 points scored per game at home this season while shooting 51.3% from the field and 39.2% from beyond the 3-points line. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs -117 | 119-101 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks 8:40 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Mavericks -117 (ML) When you look at Minnesota’s defense numbers for the season, they’re very impressive. However, they also indicate that the Timberwolves are dominant defensively at home but average on the road. Minnesota is coming off Tuesday’s 121-107 loss at New Orleans which dropped their season record to 17-5 and point per game differential to +6.8. Dallas has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while averaging 129.8 points scored per game and shot 53.2% from the field. The Mavericks have scored 120 points or more in each of their previous 5 games. Any NBA home team like Dallas that has scored 115 points or more in each of their previous 4 games, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a season point per game differential of +6.0 or better, resulted in those home teams going 22-6 SU (78.6%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Give me the Mavericks on the money line. |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Nets @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Nets +2.5 The Suns are an uninspiring 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Phoenix will be facing a Brooklyn team that has shot 47.3% from the field this season. The Suns are an atrocious 1-11 ATS and 3-9 SU this season when facing opponents with a season offensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or better. The Nets have been an extremely profitable 16-5-1 ATS this season which includes 6-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn is coming off Monday’s 131-118 at Sacramento and that is significant. The Nets are 8-1 ATS this season following a SU loss and with a +4.1 point per game differential. Lastly, since the beginning of last season, Brooklyn is 15-2 SU in December and Phoenix is 7-14 SU. Give me the Nets plus points. |
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12-12-23 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. South Florida OVER 161 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Arkansas Pine Bluff @ South Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 306507-306508 Play On: Over 161.0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff has gone over the total in all 8 of their lined games this season and there was a combined average of 173.4 points scored per contest. Pine Bluff is #11 nationally in adjusted offensive tempo while averaging 74.6 possessions per 40 minutes played. Additionally, they're 3rd worst in the country when it comes to adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing 119.0 points per 100 of their opponent's offensive possessions. Pine Bluff has allowed 100 points or more in 5 of 9 games against Division 1 opponents this season. It must be noted, they've also faced the 11th most difficult schedule in college basketball as of today but have still managed to score 86 points or more in 7 of their 11 games. Furthermore, Pine Bluff averages 11 three-point makes per games and coverts on a stellar 38.3% of those long-range attempts. Give me this game to go over the total. South Florida is 47th nationally in offensive time of possession at just 15.7 seconds per possession. South Florida games have averaged a combined 47 free throw attempts per game which is high by college basketball standards. Both teams in this matchup are very good free throw shooting teams. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-11-23 | Wolves v. Pelicans -3.5 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Timberwolves @ Pelicans 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Pelicans -3.5 This is another fishy line with all being considered and even with star guard Anthony Edwards listed as questionable to play. Minnesota is coming off a 127-103 blowout win at Memphis which extended their win streak to 6-games and they’re also on a red-hot 16-2 winning run. Yet, they’re an underdog against a New Orleans team which is coming off an embarrassing 133-89 loss to the Lakers in the NBA In-Season Tournament Semifinal. However, New Orleans is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home following a loss in their previous contest and won by a substantial margin of 22.3 points per game. Give me the Pelicans minus points. |
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12-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hawks +2.5 | 129-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Hawks 7:40 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Hawks +2.5 Like many reigning NBA championship teams before them, the Denver Nuggets have a bullseye on their head. Teams have used that emotional advantage quite well when hosting the Nuggets this season. Denver is 9-1 SU at home but a below average 5-8 on the road. This current line showing Denver has a small favorite versus an Atlanta team which is 0-3 in their last 3 and 3-8 during their previous 11 games speaks loudly to me. I am listening. Give me the Hawks plus points. |
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12-11-23 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | 94-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Magic 7:10 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Cavaliers +1.5 This point-spread jumped right off the screen at me. We have an Orlando team which is 10-1 at home this season and outscoring those visiting opponents by a decisive margin of 14.5 points per game, and here they are as just a short favorite. Not to mention, Orlando is on a current 8-game home win streak. However, the Cavaliers are 7-3 on the road this season and that includes 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road tilts. These teams met last Wednesday in Cleveland and the Cavaliers walked away with a 121-111 win despite Orlando being awarded 37 free throw attempts. The Cavaliers are a much better defensive team than Orlando and they’ve allowed 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Cowboys -3.5 Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Broncos v. Chargers -140 | 24-7 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Chargers -140 Denver is coming off a 21-16 loss at Houston which ended their 5-game win streak and dropped their season record to 6-6. Keeping that 5-game win streak into perspective, the Broncos had an abnormal turnover margin of +13 during those contests. During their other 7 games in which they went 2-5 and had a turnover margin of -7. The Chargers have only committed 2 turnovers or more in a game just twice this season. Despite having a win percentage of .500, Denver has been outscored by an average of 4.3 points and outgained by 86.3 yards per game. The Broncos are also 2-3 on the road and have been outscored by 12.2 points and outgained by 171.0 yards per game. The Chargers are much better than their current 5-7 record indicates when considering they’re outscoring opponents by 1.4 points per game. Any NFL money line home favorite that’s playing after Game 8 that averages between 95 to 125 yards rushing per game, and they were outgained by 100 rushing yards or more in their previous game, versus an opponent like Denver that allows between 125 to 150 rushing yards per game, resulted in those money line home favorites going 38-7 (84.4%) since 1983. The average money line for those 45 favorites was -143.6 and they outscored the underdogs by 8.9 points per game. Give me the Chargers as a money line favorite. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1 v. Chiefs | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Bills +1.0 This point-spread jumped off the screen when I first looked with the Chiefs only opening as a 3.0-point home favorite. My eyes opened even wider this morning when I saw this line drop to 1.0 or a pick depending on the sportsbook. After all, Buffalo is 6-6 and the defending world champion Chiefs are 8-4. Especially since Kansas City has been so good at home and extremely tough to beat following a loss under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU in their last 24 at home. However, 2 of those 4 losses came versus Buffalo. Additionally, the Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 and 15-1 SU during their previous 16 immediately following a loss. The flip side to that equation is that Buffalo is 5-1 SU under head coach Sean McDermott following a scheduled bye week. The Bills are also much better than their 6-6 record with all those 6 defeats coming by a combined 26 points and each loss came by 6 points or fewer. Not to mention, 2 of those setbacks came in overtime. Buffalo will be in desperation and urgency mode knowing they have virtually no more room for error when it comes to making the playoffs. Give me the Bills in this one. |
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12-10-23 | Vikings -2.5 v. Raiders | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Vikings -2.5 After going through a stretch in which they went 5-0 SU&ATS, the Viking have lost their last 2 contests and by just a combined 3 points. They shot themselves in the foot in both losses by committing 7 turnover which were mostly the fault of starting quarterback Joshua Dobs. After much speculation earlier this week, Dobbs will remain the starter and will gladly welcome back star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from an injury that forced him to miss 7 games. The Raiders (4-8) are a mess, and their offense has been anemic while scoring 17 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games. The Vikings are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS on the road this season when facing teams like the Raiders who currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. Their lone SU loss in that sequence was 21-20 at Denver in which they led for much of the game. The Vikings defense is a very underrated unit which has allowed only 20.2 points and 320.3 yards per game. Give me the Vikings minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Lions -3 v. Bears | 13-28 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
Lions @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Lions -3.0 The Bears have received a lot of love this week with regards to public betting. I am not one of those individuals. Yes, the Lions needed a late 26-14 deficit in their first meeting against Chicago by scoring 17 unanswered points in the last 3:05 to win 31-26. Let’s keep things in proper perspective, the Lions turned the ball over 4 times in that contest and had a -3 turnover margin and were still able to win. The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bears are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 and 1-10 SU&ATS during their previous 11 as a division home underdog. The Lions are coming off last Sunday’s 33-28 win at New Orleans in which they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Bears are coming off a 12-10 win at Minnesota in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. NFL division road favorites that are coming off a non-division road ATS favorite cover, versus an opponent that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points or fewer, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1984. Those road favorites won those 11 contests by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers -4 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Lakers vs. Pacers 8:30 PM ET Game# 535-536 Play On: Lakers -4.0 The Lakers have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and won by a decisive margin of 23.0 points per game. Los Angeles is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite of 2.0 or greater. The difference in this matchup is the Lakers are far superior on the defensive side of the floor than Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 111 points or more in every game this season. Conversely, the Lakers have allowed 110 points or fewer in 13 of their 23 games. As a matter of fact, the Pacers are allowing 124.9 points per game but have been able to get away with it on many occasions during a 12-8 start because they also average 128.4 points per contest. When it comes to big games in any sport my tendency is to lean toward the team that’s better defensively. This is a textbook example of such. For those unaware, this is the Finals of the NBA In-Season Tournament with the winning team awarded $500,000 being awarded to each player. Furthermore, the Lakers are the more experienced team and have players who have been in big games such as these much more than those of the Pacers. Give me the Lakers minus points. |
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12-09-23 | St. Mary's v. Colorado State -5 | 64-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
St. Mary’s @ Colorado State 6:30 PM ET Game# 697-695 Play On: Colorado State -5.0 St. Mary’s was ranked in the preseason AP Poll Top 25. At this current time, it’s safe to say they were vastly overrated. The Gaels are 4-5 which includes bad losses to Weber State at home, San Diego State by 25, and Xavier by 17. Conversely, Colorado State has lived up to their preseason billing by winning their first 9 games. Additionally, the Rams have covered in 7 of those 9 contests while also posting quality wins over Power Conference opponents like Washington, Colorado, Creighton, and Boston College. The Rams are an extremely efficient offensively while averaging 119.8 points scored per 100 offensive possessions and that’s 6th best in all of college basketball. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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12-09-23 | Cincinnati +1.5 v. Xavier | 79-84 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Xavier 6:30 PM ET Game# 699-700 Play On: Cincinnati +1.5 The old cliché in rivalry games such as this one is to toss the records out the window. However, it doesn’t erase that fact that Xavier (4-5) enters this matchup losers of 3 straight games and all of which were played at home. There was no shame in losing to #1 Houston by 6. However, 2 of those 3 homes losses came as a double-digit favorite to mid-major conference teams Delaware 87-80 and Oakland 78-46. and neither team is currently rated in the Top 125 of College Basketball according to KenPom. Cincinnati has played a much weaker schedule than Xavier but has started the season 7-0 and is rated #24 by KenPom. The Bearcats have posted double-digit wins in 6 of those 7 contests. Give me Cincinnati. |
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12-09-23 | Colgate v. Vermont UNDER 133 | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
Colgate @ Vermont 2:00 PM ET Game# 306517-306518 Play On: Under 133.0 Both teams play at an extremely slow tempo while ranking in the bottom 20% in that category. Neither team gets to the free throw line with regularity with Vermont ranking #331 and Colgate #358. Both are terrible when it comes to offensive rebounding, and each is very good on the defensive glass. So, likely each team will have very few chance opportunities. Each is heavily reliant on their 3 point-shooting with 48.2% of Vermont’s shots coming from 3-point range and Colgate 42.3%. Both teams have shown themselves to be more than respectable at defending the 3-point line as well. Both teams are amongst the worst in the country in forcing turnovers. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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12-08-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -8.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rockets @ Nuggets 9:10 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Nuggets -8.5 Considering the Rockets have shown to be a much-improved team in the early going of this season, this appears as a very heavy line which makes it alluring to take the underdog. Nonetheless, I just can’t ignore the home/away dichotomies in this matchup. Houton is an outstanding 9-1 SU at home but an abysmal 0-8 SU on the road. On the other hand, Denver is an uninspiring 5-8 SU on the road but an unbeaten 9-0 SU at home where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Nuggets are coming off 2 losses in a row with both coming on the road versus the Kings and Clippers. However, the defending world champions haven’t lost 3 straight games all season and are 2-0 SU&ATS immediately following back-to-back losses. Give me the Nuggets minus points. |
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12-08-23 | Cavs -130 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ Heat 8:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Cavaliers -130 (ML) The Cavaliers are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road and 4-1 SU&ATS during the previous 5 overall. As a matter of fact, Cleveland is just 6-6 SU at home thus far but a more than respectable 6-3 SU on the road. The Cavs played at Miami on 11/22 and were blown out 129-96. However, here we are a little over 2 weeks later and they come up as a short favorite at Miami again. The oddsmakers are speaking to us loud and clear. Miami is coming off a win at Toronto but they’re still 2-4 SU in their last 6 and 1-3 SU during the previous 4 games following a win. Give me the Cavaliers as a money line favorite. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Thunder | 136-138 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors @ Thunder 8:10 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Warriors +3.0 These teams have already met 3 times this season and the visitors are unscathed 3-0 during those matchups. The Warriors are certainly off to a disappointing start to the season. Nevertheless, they’re a money-making 7-3 ATS on the road. The upstart Thunder are just 2-3 in their last 5 games. During that stretch, they’re allowing opponents to attempt 33 free throw attempts per games and make an alarmingly high 38% of their 3-point shot attempts. Conversely, throughout their last 5 contests Golden State is averaging 28 free throws per contest while making a stellar 81% of those attempts. During that identical 5-game span, the Warriors have made an impressive 39.6% of their 3-point shot attempts. During their first 3 meetings against Oklahoma City, Golden State averaged an extremely high 15.7 offensive rebounds per game which equates to a better than average amount of multiple offensive possessions. Give me the Warriors plus points. |
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12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 230.5 | 89-133 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Pelicans vs. Lakers 9:00 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Over 230.5 This game will be played at a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It will be the first meeting of the season between these Western Conference teams. They met 4 times last season, and each contest went over the total with a combined average of 236.8 points scored per game. The Lakers are coming off Tuesday night’s 106-103 home win over Phoenix. Since the start of last season, the Lakers have played 9-1 to the over in games not played at home following a contest in which they allowed 105 points or fewer, and there was a combined average of 243.8 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 5-1 to the over this season in games not played at home when the total was 228.0 or greater. That includes 5-0 the last 5 in that exact scenario and with a combined 242.0 points scored per game. Conversely, New Orleans has averaged a healthy 120.0 points scored per game and shot 51.4% from the field during their previous 5 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -5.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Steelers -5.5 The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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12-07-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State OVER 153 | 65-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Iowa State 7:30 PM ET Game# 875-876 Play On: Over 153.0 The pace/tempo of this game will be conducive to a high scoring affair. Iowa is #27 nationally in adjusted offensive tempo. The Hawkeyes also average only 15.0 seconds per offensive possession which ranks 14th nationally. Iowa State is in the top 25% in college basketball when it comes to both categories previously mentioned. Iowa is 14th nationally in offensive efficiency while averaging 118.4 points scored per 100 possessions while Iowa State is in the upper 20% of college basketball at 111.2. Each team is adept at getting to the free throw line with Iowa State averaging 25 attempts per game and Iowa 24. Iowa State has scored 85 or more points in each of their 4 home games this season. Iowa has scored 84 points or more in 6 of their 8 games. This has all the makings of a game to be played in the 80’s. Give me over the total. |
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12-05-23 | San Diego State v. Grand Canyon OVER 142 | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon 9:00 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Over 142.0 Both teams in this matchup having been stellar in terms of offensive point production despite being a tad better than average when it comes to shooting percentage. Grand Canyon averages 80.3 points scored per game and San Diego State is at 77.8 per contest. Each team has been adept at getting to the charity stripe with Grand Canyon averaging 30 free throw attempts per contest which ranks #2 nationally and San Diego State 24 per game. San Diego State has played 3-0 to the over this season when the total has been between 140.0 to 147.5 and there was a combined average of 168.0 points scored per game. Grand Canyon has played 4-0 to the over this season when there was a total of between 140.0 to 145.5 and there was a combined average of 153.3 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Furman @ Arkansas 8:00 PM ET Game# 863-864 Play On: Over 158.5 Furman has played 4-0 to the over this season when the total was 157.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 169.0 points scored per game. Furman prefers an up tempo style of basketball and the statistics provided by KenPom fully backs that statement. Arkansas has played 5-0 to the over at home this season. The Razorbacks contests have averaged a combined 53 free throws per outing and that’s a huge number by college basketball standards, and equates to many points being scored with the clock stopped. Arkansas has also allowed 75 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers OVER 42.5 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Packers 8:20 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Over 42.5 For starters, the weather in Green Bay shouldn’t be a factor with game time temperatures predicted to be about 34 degrees with light wins of 5 to 7 MPH and a very low probability of any precipitation. The Packers offense has shown dramatic signs of improvement over their last 3 contests while averaging 23.7 points scored and 391.0 yards gained per game. During that same 3-game stretch, the Packers defense allowed a worrisome 165.0 yards per outing. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively on Sunday night which sets up the best play action passer in the NFL Patrick Mahome for a huge day. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over on the road when the total was between 42.0 to 49.0 and there was a combined average of 55.4 points scored per game. Additionally, the Chies went over the number in both games this season when the total was 43.0 or less. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams OVER 40.5 | 19-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Browns @ Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Over 40.5 The Browns have played 5-0-1 to the under at home this season but 5-0 to the over on the road. Those 5 road contests had a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Statistically the Browns are extremely good defensively. But those numbers are askew when comparing their home and away splits. The same can be said for their offense production on the road which has been far better than compared to that on the road. The Rams offense is coming off a confidence building performance during last Sunday’s 37-14 blowout win at Arizona. They massed 457 yards of total offense in that contest with a very balanced attach which sw them gain 228 rushing and 229 passing. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Buccaneers -3.5 Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints +4 | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Saints +4.0 The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea. Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. |
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12-03-23 | Falcons -130 v. Jets | 13-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Atlanta -130 (ML) The Jets have gone an abysmal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 and were outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per game. New York has been anemic offensively over their previous 5 games while scoring 13 points or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 23 points or more in each of their last 4 games and amassed 396 yards or more of total offense in 4 of the previous 7 contests. Atlanta is coming off a 24-15 division win as a 1.0-point home underdog versus New Orleans. NFL non-conference money line home favorites coming off a SU underdog win versus a division opponent resulted in those money line favorites going 31-3 (91.2%). Those money line favorites outscored those 34 opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me the Falcons as a money line favorite. |
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12-03-23 | Colts -117 v. Titans | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Colts -117 (ML) Tennessee is coming off last week’s 17-10 home win over a 1-10 Carolina Panthers team. The bad news is that the Titans are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Titans offense has struggled mightily this season while scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last 4, 6 of the previous 7, and 8 of 11 games this season. The Colts are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and allowed just 13.0 points and 304.3 yards per contest. Indianapolis has also gone 4-1 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and away games. It’s also worth noting, the Colts Gardner Minshew is 5-0 SU&ATS in his career team starts as a road favorite with his teams winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite. |
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12-03-23 | Dolphins v. Commanders OVER 49.5 | 45-15 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Over 49.5 Even the casual NFL fan is aware of how explosive the Miami Dolphins can be. This appears to be a prime spot for them to shine against a porous Washington defense which has allowed 29 points sor more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Commanders offense has averaged an impressive 407.8 yards gained per game over their previous 5 contests. The only reason they scored just an average of 21.2 points per contest during that stretch is they committed 11 turnovers. They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that allowed 27.3 points per game in contests played on the road or at a neutral site. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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12-02-23 | Nuggets v. Kings -4.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Nuggets @ Kings 10:10 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Kings -4.5 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets have seeming got back into a groover of late after going into a short tailspin. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and with an average victory margin of 9.7 points per game. Yet they find themselves as an underdog against a Kings team that’s coming off a 14-point home loss. Here’s the catch. Denver played last night in Phoenix and this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in 9 days. The Kings will be playing on 2 days of rest and this will only be their 4th game in 9 days. Additionally, that previously mentioned home loss to the Clippers snapped a 5-game home win streak for Sacramento. I look for them to get back on track tonight especially with a sizable rest advantage on their side. Give me the Kings minus points. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | 26-0 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Iowa +22.5 Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Georgia v. Alabama +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Alabama +5.5 Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -14.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Texas -14.5 Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points. Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Fresno State v. BYU -14.5 | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Fresno State vs. BYU 9:00 PM ET Game# 885-886 Play On: BYU -14.5 This game won’t be played in Provo but it will take place in Salt Lake City which by all intents and purposes Is a BYU home game. BYU (6-0) is currently ranked #19 in the AP Poll. Nevertheless, I trust the KenPom rankings much more and they have the Cougars at #9. BYU is is extremely good on both ends of the floor. They’re 28th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage while Fresno State is #338 at defending the 3-point shot. Fresno is an uninspiring 2-3 versus Division 1 teams thus far with their only wins coming over Morgan State and New Mexico State who currently have a combined 1-12 record versus Division 1 competition. Give me BYU minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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12-01-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius -3.5 | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac @ Canisius 7:00 PM ET Game# 865-866 Play On: Canisius -3.5 Quinnipiac is 5-1 but their wins have come over Coast Guard, Army, Stonehill, Central Connecticut State, and Albany. Their 4 Division 1 wins came over teams that currently have a combined 7-21 (.250) record. Conversely, Canisius owns quality wins over St. Bonaventure (4-2) and Western Kentucky (5-3). They also gave Syracuse (5-2) all they can handle in a 12-point road loss. Give me Canisius minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Liberty -4 v. College of Charleston | 67-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Charleston 6:00 PM ET Game# 843-844 Play On: Liberty -4.0 Liberty suffered their first loss of the season last night to #13 FAU. However, keep in mind, that was an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from a team that reached the Final 4 this past April. Additionally, that game was part of the Field of 68 Tournament which is being held on the home floor of FAU. The Flames own a quality win over a Top 100 team in Wichita State. These teams faced one common opponent and that was Vermont. Liberty defeated the Catamounts 71-61 while Charleston lost 77-69 on a neutral floor. Charleston is a mediocre 3-3 to start the season with 1 of those wins coming against a team that currently has a winning record. Libert has played the tougher schedule and is batter both offensively and defensively than Charleston. This is also an experienced Liberty team that went 27-9 a season ago and advanced to the 2nd Round of the NIT where they lost at Wisconsin 75-71 after advancing with a home win over Villanova. Give me Liberty minus points. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 47 | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Cowboys 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Over 47.00 Dallas is 5-0 at home and averaging a massive 41.0 points scored per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season. Dallas has played 8-1 to the over at home when the total was between 42.5 to 49.0 with a combined average of 61.3 points scored per game. The Cowboys have scored 33 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Dallas has played 6-0 to the over throughout the past 3 season following 2 consecutive contests in which they scored 25 points or more and there was a combined average of 60.7 points scored per occurrence. Any NFL away team like Seattle with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that has a winning record, versus an opponent like Dallas with a win percentage of between .600 to .750 that’s coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite, resulted in those games playing 13-1 to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-30-23 | Pacers +2.5 v. Heat | 132-142 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Pacers @ Heat 7:40 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Pacers +2.5 Indiana is coming off a stunning 114-110 home loss to Portland in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. However, the Pacers have only dropped back-to-back games once this season and the last time it occurred was way back on 11/1. As a matter of fact, Indiana has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 immediately following a loss and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. The Pacers have been a dynamic offensive team thus far and have averaged 127.6 points scored per game while also shooting a red-hot 50.3% from the field. Conversely, Miami is 0-3 SU in their last 3 and during those contests they allowed opponents to shoot 50.6%. Five me the Pacers plus points. |
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11-30-23 | Liberty v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Liberty @ FAU 6:00 PM ET Game# 737-738 Play On: FAU -7.5 Liberty comes into this matchup with a 6-0 record. However, they’ve faced a much easier schedule than FAU and has posted no victories over major conference teams. This will also be the Flames first true road game of the season. #13 FAU (6-1) sustained a massive upset loss earlier this season when they fell to Bryant as a 23.5-point home favorite. However, since that stunning defeat, the Owls have gone 3-0 with wins over noteworthy opponents the likes of Butler, Texas A7M. and Virginia Tech. During those 3 victories they averaged an impressive 90.3 points scored per game and shot a blistering hot 54.3% from the field. Keep in mind, this is an FAU team which made it to the Final 4 a season ago and all 5 of last year’s starters returned for another run at a national championship. Give me FAU minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Colorado v. Colorado State -2.5 | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Colorado State 9:00 PM ET Game# 709-710 Play On: Colorado State -2.5 Colorado State is a hidden gem at 6-0 and ranked #20. The Rams are coming off an extremely impressive 69-48 upset win over #15 Creighton as a 9.0-point underdog on a neutral floor. Colorado State is averaging 84.9 points scored per game while shooting a blistering hot 53.9% from the field and 39.1% from beyond the 3-point line. The Rams will be out for big time revenge stemming from a 93-65 blowout loss at Colorado last season. Give me Colorado State minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Bradley @ Murray State 8:00 PM ET Game# 697-698 Play On: Bradley -3.5 Bradley is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS to start the season. I know they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out, but they’re solid defensively and faced a respectful strength of schedule thus far. Murray State will enter this contest on a 3-game losing streak with many of their recent failures deriving from poor defensive play. Give me Bradley minus points. |
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11-29-23 | Oakland -7 v. Detroit | 65-50 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Oakland @ Detroit 7:00 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Oakland -7.0 Detroit has been horrible to start the season. The Titans are 0-6 with an average loss margin by 17.3 points per game and failed to cover on 5 of those 6 occasions. They’ve been especially brutal on the defensive end of the floor. Oakland is 4-3 and covered all 7 games. Oakland is coming off a terrific upset win over Xavier on a neutral floor in a game they were a 15.0-point underdog. They were very competitive in losses by 6 at Ohio State (5-1), by 11 at Illinois (5-1), and by 8 versus Drake (5-1). Give me Oakland minus points. |
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11-28-23 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 223 | 103-115 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Nets 7:40 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Over 223.0 Toronto is coming off a 105-102 loss at Cleveland in their previous game that went under the total of 221.0. The Raptors after played 5-0 to the over during their previous 5 games when the total is 229.5 or less and their previous contest went under. Those 5 contest had a combined average of 239.2 points scored per game. Brooklyn has averaged 117.8 points scored per game throughout their previous 5 contests and shot a blistering hot 42.0% from beyond the 3-point line. During that identical 5-game stretch, the Nets also allowed 119.2 points per contest. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-28-23 | Miami-FL v. Kentucky OVER 163.5 | 73-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Miami @ Kentucky 7:30 PM ET Game# 619-620 Play On: Over 163.5 This total is this high for good reason and don’t be shocked to see both teams scoring 90 or more points. Miami is #1 nationally in 3-point efficiency while make 45.4% of their long-range attempts. Kentucky is #4 in that category at 42.5%. Kentucky has gone over the total in each of their previous 4 games with a combined average of 181.3 points being scored per contest. Miami has played 4-1 to the over this season with a combined average of 161.4 points scored per game. Both teams play up tempo when looking at their average offense time of possession with Kentucky at 14.9 second (15th nationally) and Miami 15.2 (22nd nationally. Miami is also one the best free throw shooting teams in the nation while making a terrific 82.6% of their attempts. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-27-23 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 12-10 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Bears @ Vikings 8:15 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Over 43.5 Let’s start with tonight’s quarterbacks. During the past 5 seasons, Joshua Dobbs has made 9 home starts and those games played 7-1-1 to the over with an averaged combined points score of 53.4 per contest. Justin Fields has made 7 starts this season and Chicago played 6-1 to the over in those contests and there was a combined average of 51.6 points scored per game. Both quarterbacks have the ability to extend plays with their mobility and are a legitimate threat to take off and run with positive results. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Minnesota has played 8-0 to the over at home when it’s after Game 8 and there was a combined average of 56.1 points scored per game. The Bears have seen each of their last 4 played in Minnesota go over the total and with a combined average of 49.7 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-26-23 | Raptors +1.5 v. Cavs | 102-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Raptors @ Cavaliers 7:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Raptors +1.5 The Raptors have shot the ball extremely well of late and Cleveland has been porous defensively over their last 2 games. Toronto has averaged 121.4 points scored per contest and shot 51.9% throughout their previous 2 games. Conversely, Toronto is coming off 2 consecutive home losses in which they allowed 125.0 points per contest, permitted their opponents to shoot 52.3%, and was -7 rebounds per game. Give me the Raptors plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Bills +3.0 When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets. The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars -125 v. Texans | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Jaguars -125 Jacksonville will be out to revenge a 37-20 upset loss to Houston in Week 2. They outgained the Texans 404-366 in that loss but were -2 in the turnover department. This time around they’ll be facing a Texans team which has committed 3 turnovers in each of their previous 2 games. The Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS on the road or a neutral field this season with an average victory margin of 9.6 points per game. Any NFL away team that has a point-spread of between +3.0 to -11.0 who’s playing between Game 5 through 15, and they’re coming off a division home win in which they scored 31 points or more and covered by 10.0-points or greater., resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin during those 11 wins came by 12.3 points per game. Give me the Jaguars as a money line favorite. |
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11-26-23 | Bucs v. Colts -135 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -135 The Colts are coming off 2 straight wins over New England 10-6 and Carolina 27-13. They’re also coming off their bye week and will be well rested. The Colts have gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS during the past 3 seasons after allowing 14 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 game and won by 8.3 points per contest. Tampa Bay has lost their last 3 road games. Any regular season money line home favorite that won each of their previous 2 games and are playing after Game 9, versus an opponent that has a win percentage of .818 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-1 SU (95.6%) since 1993 and 18-0 SU since 2002. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite. |
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11-26-23 | Saints -123 v. Falcons | 15-24 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Falcons 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Saints -123 The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and were a favorite on each occasion. Those defeats dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). The latest of which was a 25-23 setback at Arizona. Since 2018 the Falcons are an abysmal 1-12 SU immediately following a loss by 3 points or fewer and includes 0-4 SU if they were playing at home. New Orleans has gone 6-1 SU in their last 7 and 9-2 SU during their previous 9 games versus Atlanta. They’re also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Atlanta. The Saints are just 5-5 but possess a very good turnover margin of +6 for the season. Any NFL money line favorite like the Saints who possess a win percentage of .285 or better, versus an opponent like the Falcons who are coming off 2 consecutive SU favorite losses, and they possess a win percentage of between .400 to .490, resulted in those money line favorites going 21-1 (95.4%) since 1994. Give me the Saints as a money line favorite. |
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11-25-23 | Florida State -6.5 v. Florida | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Florida State -6.5 Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Heat @ Nets 6:10 PM ET Game# 503-504 Play On: Nets -3.5 Miami (10-6) has won 9 of their last 11, and Brooklyn (6-8) is on a current 3-game losing streak. Yet, it’s the Nets that come up favorite in this spot which jumped off the page at me. However, after careful examination I can see precisely why the line is set where it is and a compelling case can be made for the home favorite. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Heat suffered a 2-point loss to New York at Madison Square Garden last night in which they mounted a furious rally from a 21-point deficit and just fell short. In doing so, Miami expended a lot of energy and now will play today on less than 24 hours of rest. Conversely, Brooklyn will be playing on 2 days of rest. This marks just the 4th time this season that the Nets are installed as a favorite. That’s significant because Brooklyn is 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite this season with an average victory margin of 13.3 points per game. Give me the Nets minus points. |
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11-25-23 | BYU v. Oklahoma State -16 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0 BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +3 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Nuggets @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Rockets +3.0 The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are just 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. Denver is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, but they’re an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road and includes a dreadful 1-7 ATS in those contests. Since losing their home opener, Houston has gone an unscathed 7-0 SU&ATS at home with 4 of those coming as an underdog. Their average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive 16.0 points per game. Give me the Rockets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Davidson +11.5 v. St. Mary's | 55-89 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
Davidson @ St. Mary’s 4:00 PM ET Game# 807-808 Play On: Davidson +11.5 St. Mary’s has vastly underachieved in the early portion of their schedule when considering they were a preseason Top 25 team. The Gaels have lost their last 3 including the previous 2 in blowout fashion versus Xavier and San Diego State. They began their current 3-game skid by losing to Weber State at home as a 15.5-point favorite. Davidson is 3-2 but owns a win over Maryland and lost to currently undefeated Clemson by just 3. Davidson posted a 69-45 home win over Boston U. in their previous game. Davidson has gone an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a win by 20 points or more. Give me Davidson plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +10 | 34-13 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Jets +10.0 The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3. NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points. |
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11-24-23 | Iowa v. Nebraska -140 | 13-10 | Loss | -140 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Nebraska -140 This point-spread goes against logical thinking and when that occurs I more times than not go with the nonsensical option. Iowa is 9-2 and ranked #20. Yet, they’re an underdog against a 5-6 Nebraska team which has lost 3 in a row. This certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is coming off a 15-13 home win over unranked Illinois which clinched a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game next week in which they’ll either take on undefeated Michigan or Ohio State. On the other hand, Nebraska needs a win to become bowl eligible which would be a huge boost for the program under first year head coach Jeff Ruhle. Yes, the Cornhuskers are on a 3-game losing streak, but all those defeats cam by 7, 3, and 3 points. Give me Nebraska as a money line favorite. |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Over 42.5 Seattle is coming off an away 17-16 division loss to the Rams which dropped their season record to 6-4 (.600). The 49ers enter this NFL West battle with a record of 7-3 (.700). This sets up a high percentage NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below. NFL teams like Seattle with a win percentage of .727 or worse that are coming off a division loss by 3 points or fewer, and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent with a win percentage of between .153 to .769, and the current total in this identical situation is between 39.0 to 46.5, resulted in those contests playing 34-3 (91.9%) to the over since 2014. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-23-23 | Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
Commanders @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Over 48.5 Washington has played 4-0 to the over this season when the number is 42.5 or greater and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per game. During their previous 3 games, Washington has averaged 24.0 points scored and 415.8 yards gained per contest. They’ll be facing a Cowboys team which has averaged 40.0 points scored and 446.5 yards gained per game at home this season. Both teams have played 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games with averaged combined scores of 55.8 points scored in contests involving Dallas and 52.3 in those Washington outings. Dallas is coming off a 33-10 win at Carolina and covered as an 11.0-point favorite. Washington is coming off a 31-19 home loss to the New York Giants. Any NFL home favorite of -10.0 or greater that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS cover, versus an opponent that allowed 19 points or more in their previous contest, and the total in this current identical situation is 45.0 or greater, resulted in those games playing 7-0 to the over since 1998. There was a combined average of 65.7 points scored per gane during those 7 contests. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Lions -7.5 The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions. Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions OVER 47 | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 2 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Over 47.0 The Packers offense has shown substantial signs of improvement of late. Throughout their previous 3 contests Green Bay has 395.7 yards per game. Although their point per game total of 20.7 per game average during that stretch is indicative of failing to cash in on scoring opportunities more than mediocre at best points scored production. The Lions are averaging a robust 30.0 points scored and 395.4 yards gained per game at home. During their previous 3 contests, the Lions are averaging 32.7 points scored and 452.3 yards gained per game. Since head coach Dan Campbell was hired, Detroit has played 10-4 to the over as a favorite. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -4.5 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Grizzlies @ Rockets 8:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: Rockets -4.5 Memphis is off to a horrible 3-10 start to the season. Additionally, 2 of their 3 wins came over Portland and San Antonio who are currently a combined 6-22. Houston comes off a recently completed 0-3 road trip. However, those defeats came by a combined 8 points, and they covered on each occasion as an underdog. This will be just the 3rd time this season that Houston is installed as a favorite and they covered each of those situations. The Rockets are also 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season with a decisive +11.6 point per game differential. Give me the Rockets minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 237.5 | 99-131 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Jazz @ Lakers 10:00 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Over 237.5 Utah has played 4-0 to the over this season whenever the number was 231.0 or greater and there was a combined average of 258.0 points scored per game. This will be their first meeting of the season against the lakers this season. All 4 games against the Lakers a season ago went over the total and there was a combined average of 253.5 points scored per game. During their previous 5 contests Utah has scored and allowed an identical 125.0 points per game. The Lakers have scored an average of 115.7 points per contest and shot a combined 50.6% over their previous 6 games. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers v. Suns -12.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Trailblazers @ Suns 9:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Suns -12.5 This is one of those rare instances that I’m willing to side with an NBA double-digit favorite. Portland has lost 7 straight which includes failing to cover their last 4 and losing being outscored by an average of 21.3 points per game. Throughout that 4-game stretch they averaged a mere 95.0 points scored per contest and shot a miserable 39.9%. During the past 3 seasons, Portland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or fewer in their previous contest and they were outscored by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Suns will enter this Pacific Division contest on a 3-game win streak while averaging 134.7 points scored per game and they shot a combined 53.5%. Phoenix has also made a sizzling hot 44% of their 3-point shot attempts throughout their last 5 games. Give me the Suns minus points. |
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11-21-23 | Cavs +8 v. 76ers | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Cavaliers @ 76ers 7:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Cavaliers +8.0 After a disappointing start to the season, Cleveland has begun to right the ship while having won their last 3. The latest of which was a 121-109 win over defending NBA champion Denver. During this current win streak, they shot 51.2% or better on all 3 occasions. Philly is coming off 2 straight road win over Atlanta 126-116 and Brooklyn 121-99. However, they’ve lost their last 2 at home. Any NBA underdog of between 3.5 to 9.0 that scored 120 points or more in their previous game, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 120 points or greater in each of their previous 2 contests, resulted in those underdogs going 31-11 ATS (73.8%) during the previous 3 seasons. Give me the Cavaliers plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chiefs -2.5 No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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11-20-23 | Howard +4 v. Bryant | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Bryant is coming off a massive 61-52 upset of nationally ranked FAU team and did so as a 23.5-point road underdog. That's an FAU team that returned all 5 starters from last season's Final Four team. However, now Bryant finds themselves as a short home favorite against a 2-3 Howard team. If it looks to goo to be true in sports betting, more times than not it is. Give me Howard plus points. |
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11-20-23 | Purdue -4.5 v. Gonzaga | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an experienced Purdue team that demolished Gonzaga 84-66 on a neutral court last season. The Boilermakers are 3-0 thus far and have outscored all 3 of those Division 1 opponents by a decisive margin of 29.6 points per game. Gonzaga's lone game versus a division 1 team this year was an uninspiring 15-point home win over Yale. Purdue is a terrific shooting and rebounding team. Expect a similar result to the one we witnessed last year. Give me Purdue minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46 | 16-17 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rams @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Over 46.0 Mathew Stafford returns to the line after missing the last game at Green Bay due to injury. Stafford has accounted for a trio of 300-yard plus passing games this season which included Week 1 at Seattle. The Seahawks pass defense has been extremely vulnerable in recent seasons and especially when facing upper end quarterbacks like Stafford. This year has been no different which has been proven by them allowing 288 yards or more passing on 4 separate occasions this season. The Seahawks are coming off last Sunday’s 29-26 win over Washington in which they amassed a substantial 489 yards of offense. Quarterback Gino Smith threw for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns in that win. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans -5.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Texans -5.5 Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game. After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals. Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers v. Packers OVER 44 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Over 44.0 Los Angeles Chargers games have averaged a combined 50.5 points scored per game this season. On a negative note, the Chargers defense surrendered 533 yard in last Sunday’s 451-38 home loss to Detroit. Most notable, they allowed the Lions to rush for 200 yards in that contest and marked the 3rd time this season that they allowed 200 or more yards on the ground. Conversely, the Packers have run for 137 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Chargers have averaged 31.7 points scored per game in their last 3 contests. The Packers have played 3-0 to the over this season when they’ve been an underdog of 2.0 or more and there was a combined average of 48.3 points scored per game. The weather prediction in Green Bay is pleasant for this time of year and won’t hinder either offense. Give me this game to go over the total. |
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11-19-23 | Giants v. Commanders -8.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Commanders -8.5 Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -120 | 22-20 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Washington @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Oregon State -120 We have the #5 team in the country that’s 10-0 like Washington who’s vying for a national championship in a virtual even game against a 2-loss team. It just looks way too good to be true doesn’t it? However, in my professional opinion this current point-spread is justified. Oregon State is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 27.2 points per game. Which includes a 21-7 win over #16 Utah and a 36-24 victory versus UCLA (6-4) who was 4-1 and nationally ranked at that time. Conversely, Washington’s last 6 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. Furthermore, throughout their previous 3 contests the Huskies have allowed an average of 34.3 points and 465.3 yards per game. That’s hardly national championship caliber defense. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina -125 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ South Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: South Carolina -125 South Carolina (4-6) needs a win to keep their postseason bowl hopes alive. The Gamecocks are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida 41-39. During those 5 home contests they’ve average 41.6 point scored and 491.6 yards gained per game. Kentucky started the season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25. However, they’re 1-4 since that time and in those 4 losses allowed 33 points or more on each occasion. Additionally, Kentucky is already bowl eligible along with finishing the regular season next week with a showdown against bitter rival Louisville (9-1) who’s currently ranked #9 in the country. Give me South Carolina on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +9.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Tennessee +9.5 If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points. |
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