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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-12-24 | Nuggets +3 v. Wolves | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves had their fun upsetting the defending world champion Nuggets in Denver during the first two games of the series. |
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05-11-24 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
It's only been two games, but already this series is shaping up to be weird. The Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1 and won by 25 points. The Cavaliers scored 118 points in Game 2 and won by 24 points. |
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05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 2 m | Show |
The Knicks are up 2-0 in this series. But I'm expecting things to catch up to the Knicks in a big way starting in this Friday's Game 3 with the venue switching to Indianapolis.
The Pacers should have won Game 1. There were several controversial official's calls that went for the Knicks, which swung the result. The Knicks then battled through injuries to produce a gutty, 130-121, Game 2 win on Wednesday night. The Pacers made only 10 of 17 free throws in Game 2 for 59 percent. Indiana is an above average free throw shooting team. The Pacers made 78.2 percent of their free throws during the regular season. Indiana's reserves have outscored New York's bench by a staggering 77 points. The Knicks are extremely thin without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic. The problem is now made worse with OG Anunoby suffering a hamstring injury in Wednesday's game and Jalen Brunson dealing with a foot injury. I see all of this coming to a head in Game 3 where the Pacers will be as motivated as they have been all season. Look for the frustrated Pacers to unleash their pent-up energy to blow the Knicks out. |
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05-08-24 | Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 121-130 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
I'm far from convinced the Knicks are superior to the Pacers. I thought that way before this series and my belief has only been strengthened by what happened in Game 1.
The Knicks were lucky to escape with a 121-117 victory after trailing by nine points with 10:28 left. The Knicks won by only four points despite shooting 54 percent from the floor, receiving seven more free throw attempts and getting several controversial calls in their favor down the stretch. What's ominous for the Knicks is Indiana's reserve players outscored New York's bench by 43 points. The Knicks aren't likely to shoot that well again either. They were a below average scoring team, ranking 19th in points per game and 20th in field goal percentage at 46.5 percent during the regular season. Tyrese Haliburton is due to play better for Indiana and the officiating should be more even after the Game 1 scrutiny. |
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05-07-24 | Cavs v. Celtics -11.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
If the Celtics didn't own enough of an edge against the Cavaliers being the best team in basketball, they also have two added things going their way for today's Game 1 series matchup:
Boston is home and holds a huge situational advantage. The Celtics are 39-5 at home. They polished off the Heat in five games with an average winning margin of 22 points during their four victories. The last game in that series was six days ago. Cleveland had to go the full seven games against the Magic in a physical series that didn't conclude until this past Sunday. That isn't enough time for the Cavaliers to fully recover and be ready for this step-up game. The Cavaliers have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. This includes going 0-3 at Orlando with a losing margin of 22.6 points in those playoff games. So, yeah, I see a Boston blowout here. |
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05-06-24 | Wolves +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 106-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
I get that the defending world champion Nuggets don't want to fall to 0-2 in this series, especially being the home team. |
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05-05-24 | Magic v. Cavs -3 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
The youthful Magic turned a corner this season making the playoffs. But I rate the Cavaliers as the better team, especially at home. It's a nice bonus if All-Star center Jarrett Allen can play for Cleveland. He's questionable with a rib contusion and has missed the last two games. |
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05-04-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
We may not see a point spread this high the rest of the series. These teams are more even than perceived. Minnesota outscored Denver during the 2-2 split the teams had during the regular season. |
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05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 199.5 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
This has become a typical, physical Eastern Conference series. Defense has started to exert itself as we reach this Game 6. |
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05-01-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | Top | 84-118 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss. |
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04-30-24 | Magic v. Cavs -4.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2. |
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04-29-24 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 204.5 | 97-89 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have yet to break 92 points in falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Thunder. So now after seeing totals of 216 1/2, 210 and 210, we have the lowest total of the series. |
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04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Normally I'd prefer Under rather than Over when it comes to NBA playoff basketball. But in this case, I find the value to be on the Over. |
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04-28-24 | Clippers +6 v. Mavs | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the Clippers in this point range knowing Kawhi Leonard isn't going to be 100 percent - and that's if he even plays. He's questionable due to knee soreness.
But I want the better defensive team, which are the Clippers, and this many points in what shapes up as an intense, defensive-focused matchup. The first three games of the series all went Under. Now we have the lowest total of the four games. LA has held Dallas to an average of 98 points during the first three games. Down 2-1 in the series, the Clippers will be at their most intense. It's not that they're lacking star power with James Harden, Paul George and a combative Russell Westbrook. The problem for the Clippers is cold-shooting. They are 18-for-54 from 3-point range, which is 25 percent. The Clippers made 38 percent of their 3-pointers during the regular season. The Mavericks' defense is below average, ranking 20th in points allowed and 18th in 3-point defense. The Clippers have a top-10 defense. I'm not counting on him being out, but Luka Doncic is questionable because of a sore knee. It would be an unexpected bonus if he didn't play. Tim Hardaway is doubtful with an ankle sprain. He's the Mavericks' third-leading scorer. |
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic -130 | 89-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Magic are a young, inexperienced playoff team that desperately needed a confidence boost after losing the first two games of the series to Cleveland on the road. The Magic got that this past Thursday when they came home and buried the Cavaliers, 121-83. I see the Magic riding that confidence and swagger rewarding their home crowd with another victory. The Magic gave up fewer points per game than the Cavaliers during the regular season, ranking fourth. Orlando's offense has improved during each game of the series. The key, though, was the Magic's domination on the boards. Orlando outrebounded the Cavaliers, 51-32, in the last game.
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 207.5 | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Defense comes to the forefront during playoff basketball. But there has been too much of a lower adjustment on this total, especially with the Suns returning to Phoenix to host the Timberwolves. This is the lowest total of the series and Phoenix's lowest total of the season. |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | Top | 126-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns. |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday. |
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04-23-24 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 212 | Top | 93-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Even though this is playoff basketball, this is too short of a total given the star power these teams possess. |
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04-22-24 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
Having had the Under in Game 1 this past Saturday, I wasn't surprised when only 180 points were produced in the Cavaliers', 97-83, home victory against the Magic. |
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04-21-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out. |
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04-20-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Two outstanding defensive teams here in what should be an intense, grind-it-out opening-round Eastern Conference series. Throw in an unusual start time and a six-day rust factor and the Under should pay off. |
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04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday. |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored. |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that. |
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04-14-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31. That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role. The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. |
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04-14-24 | Rockets -132 v. Clippers | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Rockets want to finish at .500. They need to win this game to accomplish that.
The Clippers are locked into their playoff spot, which is the No. 4 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for so I doubt Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden even see the floor for the Clippers. |
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04-12-24 | Bulls v. Wizards +2 | Top | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards? (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.) |
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04-11-24 | Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. |
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04-10-24 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win. |
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04-09-24 | Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks v. Bulls +5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies. |
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04-09-24 | Magic -3 v. Rockets | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team. |
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04-09-24 | Heat -3.5 v. Hawks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number. |
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04-09-24 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut. |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Yes, these teams have firepower. But both teams have been playing excellent defense lately. Their defenses are underrated. The Pelicans are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, while the Suns rank seventh in the category. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here. |
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04-05-24 | Kings +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. |
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04-03-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup. |
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04-02-24 | Lakers v. Raptors +12.5 | 128-111 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Yeah, I know. It's tough to get behind the Raptors, losers of 13 in a row. But the Lakers carry a high fatigue rating, are in a letdown spot, the Raptors could get key players back and have a strong history against the Lakers. Maybe it's because of LeBron James. But the Raptors get up for the Lakers. They've beaten them seven of the last nine times in Toronto. The Lakers barely beat the Raptors in the first meeting. LA won, 132-131, at home on Jan. 9. There's a good possibility the Raptors get back both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for this game. They've been out for personal reasons. This is the Lakers' fifth road game in eight days. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and conclude their road trip with a game tomorrow against the Wizards.
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04-01-24 | Nets v. Pacers OVER 227 | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Tyrese Haliburton is back on his game. That makes the Pacers dangerous - and high-scoring. Indiana is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA at 122.7 points a game. The Pacers have reached that season average in seven of their last 10 games. The Nets are a mediocre defensive team and the Pacers have been idle since Friday. So I'm expecting a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nets only managed 104 points against the Lakers in their last game. But they scored 125 and 112 points in regulation, respectively, during their previous two games. They are going against an Indiana defense that ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring defense and last in defensive field goal percentage.
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03-31-24 | Bulls +8 v. Wolves | Top | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset. |
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03-31-24 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | 101-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers rank fifth defensively in the NBA. Denver ranks seventh defensively. Both teams rate in the bottom-seven in pace. The Nuggets are likely to be missing their second-leading scorer, Jamal Murray. He's been out the last four games with a sore knee. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Hawks | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent. |
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03-29-24 | Duke +4 v. Houston | 54-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark. The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage. Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively. While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -125 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State. Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points. Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time. Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon. Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games. Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country. |
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03-27-24 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago. |
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03-27-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago. Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 133-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers. Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense. Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer. The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 133-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
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03-25-24 | Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 | 99-97 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests. San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. |
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03-22-24 | Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona. South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State +12 v. Illinois | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't like Illinois' track record in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have failed to get through the first weekend of the tournament during their last three appearances. Illinois gets worn down, which could be the case again this season after beating Wisconsin in the always-physical Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini have a potential superstar guard in Terrence Shannon Jr. Morehead State, however, has a very strong backcourt, too, with Riley Minix, Drew Thelwell and Kalil Thomas. Minix was the Ohio Valley Conference Player of the Year averaging 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. Thelwell holds the school's single-season assist record while Thomas ranked in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season. The Eagles enter this matchup with a six-game win streak and being very underrated.
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03-20-24 | Jazz v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
These teams have met three times this season. The combined total of those games was 241, 263 and 254. So why is this total so low? |
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State +7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C. |
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03-20-24 | Heat +2.5 v. Cavs | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, the Heat rank better giving up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. Cleveland gives up the sixth-fewest points. |
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03-19-24 | Pelicans -7 v. Nets | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a play-on team. The Nets definitely are not. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Wagner and Howard meet in this play-in NCAA Tournament game. Power ratings-wise, I have Howard as more than a 3-point favorite. So I'll be on the Bison.
Wagner finished 7-9 in the Northeast Conference, but got hot in the conference tournament. The Seahawks finished the conference tournament title game with just seven healthy players. The Seahawks average just 63.1 points a game and rank 358th in field goal percentage. Howard has the better record and the top player on the court in Bryce Harris, who led the team in scoring and rebounding. |
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03-18-24 | Cavs +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line. |
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03-17-24 | Raptors +13 v. Magic | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is the most points Orlando has been favored by all season. It's not justified.
These two teams just met two days ago in Toronto. The Magic won, 113-103, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Orlando shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 19 of 22 free throws. Toronto shot 47 percent from the floor and made only 13 of 20 free throws for 65 percent. The Raptors make 74.6 percent of their free throws on the season. Yet the point spread opened nearly double from Friday. The Raptors are in the grip of a season-worst six-game losing streak. But let's look at Toronto's past five games: The Raptors lost by seven points on the road to the Suns. They lost in overtime on the road to the Trail Blazers. They easily covered on the road against the sizzling Nuggets losing by only six points before suffering a letdown loss to the Pistons and then to the Magic. This is short revenge for the Raptors so they shouldn't lack effort and motivation. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday. |
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03-17-24 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | 129-140 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing better defense than their season numbers show. The Suns are giving up an average of 107.8 points in their last five games if you rule out the 127 points they surrendered to the Celtics two games ago. The Bucks have been playing much better defense since the coaching change to Doc Rivers, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games. This is what Rivers said about his coaching philosophy with the Bucks: "With our size, to me, if we're going to get into that mud wresting or a track meet, I want the mud. It's kind of fits what we should be." There are other factors that point to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Phoenix is concluding it's four-game, seven-day road trip here. This is a 10 a.m. west coast start time, too, for the Suns. So they could play slower than usual given their fatigue factor and unorthodox start time. The Bucks may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo. He's questionable with a hamstring injury. That's a nice bonus for the Under if he can't play. Milwaukee will get Khris Middleton back from an ankle sprain. He's missed the last 16 games due to ankle sprain. Middleton figures to be rusty, though, and it's going to be an adjustment period for the Bucks' offense to fit him back in.
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03-16-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Pelicans | 107-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland has the second-worst record in the Western Conference. But the Trail Blazers are having a strong March by a point spread standard going 6-2-1 ATS. |
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03-16-24 | New Mexico +2.5 v. San Diego State | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I like New Mexico to upset San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game. |
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03-16-24 | UMass Lowell v. Vermont -7 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is the finals of the America East Conference Tournament and the deck is stacked in Vermont's favor. The venue is the Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT. That is the Catamounts' home floor where they are 44-2 since the start of 2021-22 season. Vermont has won 32 straight conference games at home. |
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03-15-24 | Hawks -133 v. Jazz | Top | 122-124 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Just a month into the season, the Jazz made a commitment to go with a youth movement. They haven't been very good because of that during the past 3 1/2 months. From once being at .500 the Jazz are now 28-37. Utah has lost 11 of its last 13 games. The Hawks are a playoff contender. They opened their West Coast trip with an upset loss to the lowly Trail Blazers. Atlanta can't afford to lose a second consecutive game to a bad team. The Hawks meet the Lakers, Clippers and Suns in their next three games. They are not going to be favored in any of those games. The Hawks rolled past the Jazz, 124-97, when they hosted them on Feb. 27. Trae Young missed that game, too. This game holds special meaning for the Hawks because it's their coach, Quin Snyder, first game back in Salt Lake City. Snyder coached the Jazz for eight seasons. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Spurs plus 10 1/2 hosting Nuggets The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They've won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52. So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points? Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That's why. Let's start with the spot. Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets' least important game of their current trip. It's a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup. It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead. During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games. Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That's a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It's a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.
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03-15-24 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 137.5 | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
St. Peter's ranks 14th in the nation defensively allowing only 64.1 points a game. Quinnipiac has stepped up defensively holding its last four foes to an average of 61.7 points. St. Peter's ranks 339th in scoring. This is a semifinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference so the defensive intensity should be raised. The site, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is notorious for being a tough shooting venue because of its difficult backdrops and structure. The Under has cashed 65 percent of the past 62 tournament games played there.
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03-15-24 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee -10 | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Tennessee beat every team in the SEC except one on its way to capturing the regular-season title. The one team the Volunteers lost to happened to be Mississippi State. |
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03-14-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 85-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now. |
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03-14-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. Bulls | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I want the Clippers going for me as they hit the road following home losses to the Bucks and Timberwolves. No shame in losing to those two elite teams, although the Clippers blew an 18-point lead vs the Timberwolves. |
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03-14-24 | Providence v. Creighton -8 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Creighton is at its finest when it comes to the best time to peak - in March. The Bluejays have covered 82 percent of their past 17 March games. I like the Bluejays to roll past Providence by double-digits. |
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03-13-24 | Cavs +7 v. Pelicans | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are a top-five defensive team and shouldn't lack motivation taking to the road after consecutive home losses to the Suns and Nets. Cleveland has injuries, but also depth. |
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03-13-24 | Bulls +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday. |
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03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -6 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset home win against Florida. But even though Arkansas has had a disappointing season, I don't see the Commodores hanging in against the Razorbacks. |
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03-12-24 | Florida International v. Jacksonville State -4 | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in Conference USA. But it has a clear right side - Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won and covered both regular-season games against Florida International out-rebounding the Panthers by 27 boards.
Jacksonville State's strength is its 32nd-ranked defense that yields just 66.1 points a game. FIU has no strengths. The Panthers are a below average shooting team, terrible from the free throw line and give up 10 more points per game than Jacksonville State. The Panthers rank 349th in defensive field goal percentage and 369th in 3-point defense. FIU is not in good form having dropped 10 of its last 13 games. |
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03-11-24 | Celtics v. Blazers OVER 217 | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The Celtics are going to get their points against a below average Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage. Boston ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game. |
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03-11-24 | Tex A&M Commerce v. Nicholls State -5.5 | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Nicholls State is the better team and in better form than Texas A&M Commerce in this Southland Conference Tournament game. Texas A&M Commerce has been terrible in an underdog role. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times they've been an underdog of more than one point. They are a bad shooting team and are bad, too, in defensive field goal percentage ranking 300th. Nicholls State went 2-0 vs the Lions during the regular season, winning the most recent matchup, 85-70, at home on Feb. 24.
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03-11-24 | Warriors -4 v. Spurs | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer. |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
The term fat and happy hasn't been used to describe the Washington Wizards in a long time. But that's what the Wizards finally are after snapping a horrendous 16-game losing streak by beating the equally bad Hornets, 112-100, at home in their last game this past Friday. Miami is anything but fat and happy. Try mad and motivated. The Heat return home off back-to-back road losses to the Mavericks and Thunder. The Heat had Saturday to rest after falling to the Thunder this past Friday. Miami won't play again until Wednesday so expect a full and focused effort against the Wizards. "We'll get better from this," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said following the losses to Dallas and Oklahoma City. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are getting new-found help in the rotation from rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. and recently acquired veteran Patty Mills. The Wizards have lost their past eight road games, getting blown out in four of their past five away contests.
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03-10-24 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 225 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
It's easy to perceive the Pelicans as an offensive team with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Truth be told, though, the Pelicans are a defensive-minded club. If you discount a 123-114 loss to the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, New Orleans has surrendered an average of only 100.9 points in its last 10 games. The Under has cashed in eight of the Pelicans' past 10 games. It takes two to make an Under work. The Hawks should do their part. Atlanta is an entirely different team without injured superstar guard Trae Young. The Hawks are averaging 119.9 points on the season while giving up 121.5 points. However, in the last seven games that Young has missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks are averaging 108.4 points and allowing just 102.8 points.
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03-09-24 | Arizona v. USC OVER 159.5 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Thanks to the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation, Arizona has wrapped up another Pac-12 regular-season championship. USC has finally gotten healthy and is coming on scoring 81 and 82 points, respectively, in their last two games. |
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03-09-24 | Cal Poly v. UC San Diego -18 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread. |
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03-09-24 | Colorado v. Oregon State +8 | 73-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
It's tough to beat both Oregon and Oregon State on the road in the span of three days. Colorado accomplished the first task defeating Oregon, 79-75, this past Thursday. That win clinched third place in the Pac-12 standings and earned the Buffaloes a first round bye in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. |
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03-08-24 | Bucks -135 v. Lakers | 122-123 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Bucks are at least one tier above the Lakers and have strong motivation after suffering an embarrassing, 125-90, road loss to the Warriors two days ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo was especially vocal about the Bucks' bad loss. |
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03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 136 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses. |
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03-08-24 | Ball State +5 v. Bowling Green | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I like Ball State's current form. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times in their last five games. They've won each of those games beating Northern Illinois and Central Michigan on the road. Then this past Tuesday, the Cardinals upset Kent, 76-69, as a 3-point home 'dog. |
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03-07-24 | Spurs +11 v. Kings | 129-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Since Jan. 29, the Kings have been favored by 6 1/2 or more points five times. They are 0-5 ATS in those games with two outright losses. Now the Kings are laying double-digits in a flat spot after a huge home underdog victory against the Lakers last night. Sacramento rallied from an early 19-point deficit to beat the Lakers, 130-120. |
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03-07-24 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 137 | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
These teams are far better on defense than offense. Cal State-Fullerton ranks 320th in scoring, but 78th defensively. Cal Riverside rates 288th in scoring and 169th defensively. |
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