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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-07-16 | Yankees v. Indians -159 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -159 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Cleveland Indians. Ivan Nova (5-5, 5.06 ERA) looked horrible vs. Texas on Monday, giving up four runs over five innings in the no-decision. Nova has struggled in the rotation and had a brutal June, posting just one quality start and failing to complete six innings in any of his last three trips to the mound. He’s also given up at least one home run in each of his last ten starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road, going 2-3 with a dispicable 6.17 ERA. Trevor Bauer (7-2, 3.02) is putting together perhaps his best campaign of his career and is a spectacular 5-0 with a 2.47 ERA in all “night” contests this season. I think Cleveland bounces back after yesterday’s 12-1 defeat and will recommend to lay the price. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-06-16 | Marlins v. Mets -174 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
8* PUNISHER on New York Mets. The Fish send Justin Nicolino (2-4, 5.34 ERA) to the hill, he was most recently destroyed for four runs off seven hits in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Braves on Friday. Nicolino has failed to register a victory in any of his last nine outings and he’s been particularly horrible on the road this season, just 1-2 with a poor 5.73 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (4-4, 2.64) who allowed one earned run off three hits over five innings in a 10-2 setback to the Cubs on Friday, also striking out seven. DeGrom now looks to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his already impressive 3-2, 2.44 ERA at home. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, lay the price with confidence on the Metropolitans. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-05-16 | Orioles v. Dodgers -146 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -146 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Dodgers. Baltimore has lost five straight, while LA has won five straight. Tillman has been excellent to this point, but he does come in off a loss to the Mariners on Thursday in which he was blasted for four runs over four innings. Maeda has improved with each start this year and comes in off a commanding performance vs. the Brewers in which he gave up a single run over six innings. Hard to imagine the struggling Orioles offense mounting much of an attack vs. the red hot Maeda. In my opinion, the DODGERS offer great value in this matchup. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-04-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
8* PUNISHER on the Toronto Blue Jays. Edinson Volquez (7-7, 4.98 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent all season. He comes into this one after throwing six scoreless vs. the Cards on Wednesday, but had given up 12 runs in one inning vs. the Astros previous. Volquez is just 2-4 with a 5.67 ERA on the road this year. The home side sends its ace Aaron Sanchez (8-1, 3.16) to the hill, he dominated the Rockies in Colorado in his last start, allowing just one run over eight innings and is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA in all night games this year. I think the Jays build off yesterday’s commanding blowout win over the Indians, while the Royals struggle in this clear pitching mistmatch. Play on the Jays. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-03-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals -182 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 EST). Chase Anderson is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to the Dodgers. Anderson has been particularly horrible on the road this year going 1-5 with 6.30 ERA. Michael Wacha has started to turn the corner after a slow start to the year and enters off his second straight win. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.60 ERA in all “day” games this year. I think Wacha continues his climb back to prominence and the home side chases Anderson early. Play on the St. Louis Cardinals. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-02-16 | Yankees v. Padres -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
10* CODE RED BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres After back-to-back walk off victories at home, New York would have to transition across the country to play a late night West Coast game in San Diego and would come up just short in the 7-6 setback. I think we’ll see another letdown this evening as well. Ivan Nova has been consistently inconsistent all year and is just 2-3 with a brutal 6.98 ERA on the road. The home side counters with ace Drew Pomeranz who owns a very respectable 2.88 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The oddsmakers are giving the Yankees much too much respect in this matchup, the value is on San Diego. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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07-01-16 | Reds v. Nationals -200 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Washington Nationals. Anthony DeScalfani is coming off a gem, going eight scoreless vs. the Padres in his last outing. Tanner Roark also comes in off a commanding effort, holding the Brewers scoreless over seven innings. DeSclafani has not been very consistent in his short time on the mound this season though, while Roark is one of the most battle tested starters in the league. Roark also owns a tiny 2.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. No need to overthink this one, lay the price with confidence on the “better” team. Play on the Nats. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-30-16 | Reds v. Nationals -185 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
8* BLOWOUT SPECIAL on Washington Nationals. Brandon Finnegan (3-6, 3.83 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently allowed three runs off five hits while walking three over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Friars on Saturday. Finnegan has been decent, not great on the road, going 2-4 with 3.82 ERA, unfortuante to be on one of the worst offensive clubs in the league. The hard-hitting home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (3-7, 4.73), who after a great start to the year, has fallen on difficult times, losing six straight coming into this one. Gonzalez though has to be feeling pretty confident he can bounce back here against the Reds’ anemic offense and improve upon his respectable 3.70 ERA record in all “night” games. Gonzalez is the superior starter in this spot, lay the price with confidence. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees -193 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
5* CODE RED BEATDOWN on New York Yankees. Here’s a monster mismatch. Nick Martinez was shelled for four runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Friday. Martinez owns an uninspiring 1-1, 5.14 ERA on the road. Yanks’ ace Mashiro Tanaka (5-2, 3.01 ERA) has won two straight and owns a very respectable 2.96 ERA in all “night” contests this season. I think the home side answers after yesterday’s blowout defeat. Lay the price with confidence. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-28-16 | Pirates v. Mariners -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seattle Mariners. Both starters have struggled over the last month. Jon Niese has lost three straight, while Hisashi Iwakuma was just rocked for five runs in his last start. Niese owns a poor 5.03 ERA on the road and his team has struggled mightily with offensive consistency in the month of June. This is a difficult series for Pittsburgh, playing on the West Coast and in the PST time zone. I think Iwakuma and the Mariners offer great value in this spot. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-27-16 | A's v. Giants -175 | 8-3 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
8* play on San Francisco Giants. Daniel Mengden (0-3, 3.00 ERA) is coming off a hard-luck loss vs. the Brewers in his last start and won’t find things to be any easier in throwing in this National League park vs. the hard-hitting Gitans. Jeff Samardzija has the clear advantage today, he’s 3-1 with a tiny 3.06 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. Play on San Francisco. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-27-16 | Cubs -222 v. Reds | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
8* play on Chicago Cubs. No need to overthink this one, it’s a pitching mismatch of epic proportions. Jake Arrieta (11-2, 1.74 ERA) is 7-1 with a 1.84 ERA on the road and 4-0 with a minuscule 0.24 ERA in all “night” games. His counterpart Dan Straily (4-4, 3.83) has been shelled for 10 runs in his last 10.1 innings, and his K:BB (now 72:37) remains cause for major concern. I’m banking on the hard-hitting Cubs to take full advantage tonight. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-27-16 | Indians -161 v. Braves | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
8* play on Cleveland Indians. Here’s another massive mismatch. Trevor Bauer (5-2, 3.20 ERA) comes into this one throwing the best in his entire career, most recently striking out ten in a complete game vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Counterpart Gant has been decent for Atlanta, but sports a poor 5.70 EA in front of the home town crowd. Everything points to the Indians continuing their hot surge. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays -125 v. White Sox | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Toronto Blue Jays. RA Dickey hasn’t received much support this year, but I think he’ll get a ton of it today as Toronto looks to break a slide in which its last four in a row overall and six straight to the White Sox after yesterday’s series opening setback. Dickey has done well in this spot all year, going 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA on the road. Miguel Gonzalez is coming off a decent outing for the Orioles, but had given up seven runs over 3.1 innings in his previous start. Gonzalez has been all over the map with his game-to-game consistency and has a poor 4.86 ERA in all “day” games. Take the Jays. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-24-16 | Phillies v. Giants -220 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
8* play on San Francisco Giants. Despite his up and down season, Jake Peavy is clearly the superior starter in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (0-2, 10.80 ERA) who has really struggled in his two starts in the bigs and who is 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Peavy (3-6, 5.47) who went six strong on Sunday, giving up just one run off four hits and a walk while striking out eight on an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Rays on Sunday. It was his fifth quality start in his last seven trips to the hill. Lay the price. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-24-16 | Nationals -160 v. Brewers | 3-5 | Loss | -160 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
8* play on Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer (8-4, 3.29 ERA) has excelled in this spot all year, going 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA on the road and an even better 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA in all “night” games. His counterpart Zach Davies (5-3, 3.62) has also been sharp this year, but note that he’s posted a pedestrian 4.10 ERA in all “night” contests. This matchup favors the hard-hitting Nationals, lay the price. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-24-16 | Twins v. Yankees -220 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
8* play on New York Yankees. This is a major mismatch obviously, the Twins turn to Tommy Milone (0-1, 5.79 ERA) who has been recalled to make this start. Milone has struggled on the road and in night contests, but his counterpart Masahiro Tanaka (4-2, 2.91) comes in off a gem, giving up one run over eight innings vs. these very Twins. Also note that he’s posted a highly respectable 2.80 ERA in all “night” games this year. Lay the price with confidence. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-23-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox -218 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
5* CODE RED BLOWOUT on the Boston Red Sox. James Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA) clearly has issues right now and there’s no way he’s just going to “flip a switch” and suddenly start pitching like an All Star again. Just continuing to throw him out on the mound and hoping that something will “click” isn’t going to work either. I’m not sure what the answer is, but I do definetly expect Shields to get destroyed again today, most recently he was shelled for eight runs off seven hits over just 1.2 innings in a loss to the Tribe on Saturday. Shields has now given up 21 earned runs over his 8.2 innings spanning three starts for his new team, giving him a ludicrous 21.81 ERA. Rick Porcello on the other hand is 8-2 with a 3.76 ERA and comes in off a victory over the Mariners on Saturday. Note that Porcello has been particularly dominant in this spot all year, going 6-0 with a very respectable 3.03 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-22-16 | Reds v. Rangers -192 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
8* play on Texas Rangers. Dan Straily has been a bit all over the map with his game to game consistency, most recently shelled for six runs by the Braves on Thursday. It was a big step back and note that he’s just 2-3 with a ballooned 5.08 ERA on the road. The surging Rangers turn to ace Cole Hamels (7-1, 2.88) who comes in off a gem vs. the hard-hitting Cardinals on Thursday, holding them to just three hits over eight scoreless innings. All signs point to another lop-sided outcome, lay the price with confidence. |
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06-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays -165 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
8* play on Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto lost the opener of this two game mini interleague series on Tuesday, but all signs point to a bounce back effort this afternoon. Robbie Ray (4-5, 4.44 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he owns a poor 3-4, 4.61 ERA in all “night” gamest his year. The home side counters with JA Happ (8-3. 3.41) who comes in off a gem vs. the Phillies on Thursday, allowing one run in the 13-2 beatdown. Note that Happ is 4-1 at home this year. Big pitching and motivational mismatches makes this a price I can living with paying. |
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06-22-16 | Royals v. Mets -183 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
8* play on New York Mets. Obviously this is a big pitching mismatch. Noah Syndergaard (7-2, 1.91 ERA) was supposed to pitch yesterday, but Bartolo Colon went instead. In his last start he struck out 11 over 8.1 innings, allowing just two runs off five hits in the victory. Danny Duffy (2-1, 3.17) also comes in off a great start, striking out ten White Sox in a 4-1 victory on Saturday. However, Syndergaard is just too tough in front of the home town crowd, this is a matchup that favors the home side. Lay the price. |
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06-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays -172 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -172 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays. Patrick Corbin has a 5.58 ERA in all “night” games this year, while Marco Estrada leads the AL in WHIP and is third in ERA. Arizona is coming off a series sweep of Philadelphia and is now primed for a classic letdown in having to travel North of the border to play an interleague contest. Look for TORONTO to take full advantage as a lop-sided destruction is imminent. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-20-16 | Angels v. Astros -139 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
8* play on Houston Astros. Jhoulys Chacin is just 3-4 with a 5.00 ERA and has failed to pitch through five innings in each of his last three starts. His counterpart Doug Fister is 7-3 with a 3.26 ERA and has excelled in this spot all year, going 6-3 with a 3.73 ERA in all “night” games. Play on the ASTROS. |
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06-20-16 | Rays v. Indians -122 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Drew Smyly is just 2-7 with a 4.75 ERA, while Josh Tomlin is 8-1 with a 3.27 ERA. Tampa Bay has struggled on the road with consistency, all signs point to the INDIANS taking full advantage of this matchup. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the INDIANS. |
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06-20-16 | Giants -183 v. Pirates | 0-1 | Loss | -183 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
8* play on San Francisco Giants. No need to overanalyze this pick, the Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner is 8-2 with a tiny 2.01 ERA. His struggling counterpart Jeff Locke is just 5-5 with a 5.92 ERA. We’re banking on Bumgarner to continue his dominant ways and for Locke’s inconsistent ways to once again be his downfall. Play on the GIANTS. |
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06-17-16 | Yankees -160 v. Twins | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
8* SUPER PUNISHER on New York Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka (3-2, 3.08 ERA) gave up two runs in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Angels over seven innings in his last start. Tanaka has been dominant in this spot all season, going 2-1 with a tiny 1.36 ERA. Counterpart Pat Dean (1-2. 4.17) is 0-0 with a 4.19 ERA at home and has posted an even worse 4.32 ERA in all “night” games. Look for New York to build off yesterday’s series opening victory in this extremely favorable matchup. |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -169 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
5* CUSTOMER APPRECIATION PUNISHER on Chicago White Sox. Confirmed “gas can” Mike Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 4.68 ERA this season and just 0-4 with a 4.39 ERA in all “night games.” His counterpart Chris Sale is 10-2 with a 2.87 ERA and is 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA in all “night” games. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, lay the price with confidence on the best pitcher on the planet. |
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06-14-16 | Pirates v. Mets -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
8* play on New York Mets. Jameson Taillon faced the Mets before getting optioned back to Triple-A last week and gave up three runs off six hits and two walks, ultimatley not factoring into the decision. It was a decent outing. Taillon draws a tough matchup throwing opposite Jacob DeGrom (3-2, 2.80) who is coming off a tough luck loss vs. the Pirates on Tuesday, giving up three runs while striking out nine over six innings. DeGrom’s 11.9 K/9 rate over his last four starts is impressive to say the least. DeGrom has been playing at a very high level of late and there’s no reason not to think that his commanding play won’t continue here, note that he’s 2-0 with a tiny 2.03 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-14-16 | Reds v. Braves -128 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -128 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
10* play on Atlanta Braves. Brandon Finnegan is 2-4 with a 3.77 ERA. He’s been decent on the road this year, but like Julio Teheran (2-6, 2.85) he’s been the victim of poor run support. These are a couple of hte worst offenses, but Teheran gets the nod because of home field here, we’re laying the short price on the crafty veteran. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -215 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who is thrown to the wolves in his major league debut. Eflin was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 68.1 innings of work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The home side counters with ace Marcus Stroman (5-2, 4.94) who has had some difficulty of late, most recently getting rocked for six earned runs over five innings in a 6-4 loss to the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday, striking out four. Stroman struggled, but there were a couple of sliver linings as he would induce 11 swinging strikes. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Eflin is in over his head here, after Toronto’s struggles in yesterday’s series opener, I’m expecting the heavy hitters from the home side to tee off on this rookie. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-13-16 | Twins v. Angels -138 | 9-4 | Loss | -138 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
8* play on the LA Angels. Ricky Nolasco (2-4, 5.17 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he was most recently shelled for five runs off 11 hits in a loss to the Fish on Wednesday. Nolasco remains one of the most hittable starters in baseball and is a deplorable 0-3 with a ballooned 6.82 ERA in all night games. The home side counters with Jered Weaver (5-5, 5.56) who came into his last start in New York having posted three straight quality appearances, but the veteran would come up short in a venue that he’s historically struggled in, giving up six runs. Weaver has been the more consistent and clearly benefits in throwing at home, in my opinion, the line value is simply too good to turn down here. Play on the Angels. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-13-16 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -166 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. This is a massive mismatch, the value is clearly on the home side in my opinion. Mike Bolsinger (1-3, 5.75 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he was most recently rocked for six runs off seven hits and two walks with five K’s over 5.1 innings in a setback to the Rockies on Monday. Bolsinger gave up a pair of hom eruns and had already given up three home runs in as many starts prevoius to that. Note that Bolsinger has been particularly horrible in this spot this year, going 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA on the road. The home side counters with ace Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.84) who has now fully turned the corner after a horrible start to the season, most recently throwing a complete game shutout in a victory over the Rays on Tuesday. Greinke hasn’t given up a run in 16 innings and has held the opposition to one run or fewer in three of his past four starts. Get down on this one quick before the line climbs. Play on the Diamondbacks. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-13-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -200 | 7-0 | Loss | -200 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
5* play on Toronto Blue Jays. Jerad Eickhoff (3-8, 3.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’s coming off a decent outing but is a deplorable 0-5 with a 6.41 ERA on the road this season (compared to 3-3 with a 2.12 ERA at home). Veteran RA Dickey (4-6, 4.15) gets the call for the hard-hitting home side, he most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a victory over the Tigers on Wednesday. Dickey has actually been better on the road than at home this season, but clearly he’s the superior starter in this particular matchup. And the Jays get the big nod at the plate as well, making this a price that I can live with paying. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-12-16 | Phillies v. Nationals -245 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
5* play on Washington Nationals. This is a major mismatch. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Morgan (1-5, 6.70 ERA) who comes in off one of his better starts to the season after giving up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Monday. Previous to that Morgan had given up 12 total runs over two outings. Morgan has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going 0-3 with a 9.88 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Joe Ross (5-4, 2.92) who is coming off an outing to forget vs. the White Sox, but who must be feeling confident he can bounce back today as he’s a sparkling 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in all day games. Play on Washington. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-12-16 | Indians -153 v. Angels | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
8* play on Cleveland Indians. Danny Salazar (6-3, 2.24 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, he had his last start skipped due to shoulder fatigue, but in his previous outing he’d allow just one run off thre scattered hits while stirking out nine over eight innings in a 6-1 win over the Royals on Friday. Note that Salazar has been particularly effective in all “day” games, posting a 2.67 ERA. David Huff (0-1, 12.27) goes for the home side, he made a spot start vs. the Yanks on Tuesday and was promptly blasted for five runs off eight hits while walking one and striking out one in 3.2 innings. Huff isn’t expected to be in the line up much longer with Tropeano returning and he’s not going to last too long in this game either. Great line value on what will prove to be an epic lop-sided destruction. Play on the Indians. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-12-16 | Red Sox -157 v. Twins | 4-7 | Loss | -157 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
8* play on Boston Red Sox. Rick Porcello (7-2, 4.04 ERA) gets the call for the hard-hitting Red Sox who comes in off a quality outing vs. the Giants on Tuesday, allowing three runs off five hits and a walk with six K’s over six innings in the no-decision. Porcello has an excellent 68:15 K:BB ratio and sports a very respectable 5-2, 3.77 ERA record in all “night” games this year. The home side counters with Pat Dean (1-2, 4.75) who gave up four runs off seven hits and a walk with two K’s in a no-decision vs. the Marlins on Tuesday. Dean struggled with his command, inducing just four swinging strikes in 90 pitches. Note that Dean has been particularly inept at home, 0-0 with a ballooned 5.54 ERA. Porcello is clearly the superior starter and he’s backed by one of the hottest lineups in all of MLB right now. Play on Boston. - The BookieKiller Crew |
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06-11-16 | Astros v. Rays -125 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Tampa Bay Rays. I like the Rays’ beleagured ace to put it all together today and for his team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.00 ERA) who was most recently blasted for four runs off eight hits and walk with two K’s over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Rangers on Monday. Fiers has given up 78 hits and 11 home runs in just 66.2 innings this year and has been particularly susceptible in this spot all season, going 0-1 with a deplorable 7.20 ERA on the road. Archer (4-7, 4.73) will look to build off his best outing of the season, giving up three runs off five hits with three walks over six innings while also striking out 12 in a victory over Arizona on Monday. While he’s just 1-3 at home this season, he owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in friendly confines. Archer and the RAYS offer tremendous value in this position. |
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06-10-16 | Rangers v. Mariners -142 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
5* play on the Seattle Mariners. Derek Holland (5-4, 4.53 ERA) is coming off a win over the M’s last week, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA on the road. Hisashi Iwakuma was the opposing losing pitcher, but he would go seven innings as well and is 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA in all night games this year. |
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06-10-16 | Royals v. White Sox -168 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
5* play on the Chicago White Sox. No need to overanalyze this one, Chris Sale (9-2, 2.54 ERA) has been lights out at home, going 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA. He’s been even better in all “night” contests, going 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA. Ian Kennedy (4-4, 3.44) has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA on the road this season. |
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06-10-16 | Phillies v. Nationals -240 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show | |
5* play on Washington Nationals. Jeremy Hellickson has been great, 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his play in all night games, going a poor 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA. The home side counters with ace Stephen Strasburg (9-0, 2.85) who is 4-0 with a 3.54 ERA at home and an even better 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in all night games. Washington definitely worth the price of admission in this spot. |
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06-09-16 | Cardinals -155 v. Reds | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
8* DESTROYER on St. Louis Cardinals. This is a massive pitching mismatch, Adam Wainwright (5-4, 5.40 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Giants on Friday, giving up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out six in the unfortunate setback. Wainwright has now turned the corner, as the long-ball issue which plagued him at the start of the season is now a thing of the past, the Cards’ ace has given up zero dingers in three of his last four starts. Brandon Finnegan (2-4, 3.89) is coming off a great start vs. the Nats, but has a pedestrian 4.64 ERA at home. I like Wainwright in this matchup and give a big nod to the Cards’ lineup. Lay the price with confidence. |
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06-08-16 | Red Sox v. Giants -125 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
8* play on San Francisco Giants. Both pitchers come in with idential 7-2 win/loss records, but that’s where the similarities end. David Price owns a 4.88 ERA, while Madison Bumgarner has a 2.03 ERA. Price owns a 3.90 ERA on the road, while Bumgarner owns a a 1.74 ERA at home. What’s up with this line? In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” |
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06-08-16 | Cardinals -170 v. Reds | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. A couple of inconsistent hurlers collide on Wednesday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we believe the total will eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Jaime Garcia (4-5, 3.48 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday, also walking three. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Alfredo Simon (2-5, 8.94) who comes in off a victory despite allowing four runs off five hits with three walks over seven innings vs. the Rockies on Thursday. Note that Simon is a deplorable 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA at home thus far. Garcia is clearly the better starter and well worth the price of admission in this spot. |
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06-08-16 | Angels v. Yankees -168 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
8* play on New York Yankees. Nathan Eovaldi is 4-2 his last six behind a 3.24 ERA, while Weaver has gone just 1-3 behind a deplorable 8.71 ERA at Yankee Stadium lifetime. New York has taken the first two games of this series and is waking up at the plate, while LA continues to struggle. The Yanks are well worth the price of admission in this spot. |
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06-07-16 | Cubs -235 v. Phillies | 2-3 | Loss | -235 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
3* BIG JUICE BLOWOUT on the Chicago Cubs. Jerad Eickhoff is coming off a quality start for the Phillies, giving up two runs off eight hits over six innings in a setback to the Brewers on Thursday. Eickhoff took a come-backer off his foot in the seventh inning and will reportedly start tonight despite some swelling in his ankle. The visitors counter with Kyle Hendricks, who gave up two runs off three hits over eight innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Thursday, walking one and stirking out six. Hendricks 0.92 WHIP through ten starts is the fourth-best in all of MLB. I’m banking on Hendricks to continue his hot run and to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence. |
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06-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -117 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Detroit Tigers. Michael Fulmer (5-1, 3.24 ERA), struggled to open the season but has turned things around of late, yielding one run and nine hits over his last 22 1/2’s innings, most recently striking out 11 in seven innings vs. Tampa Bay in Comerica Park debut on May 21st. The Tigers are swinging the bat well right now as well, hitting .339 during a 4-1 stretch and collecting at least 11 hits in all five games during its recent win skein. JA Happ is also have a monster season for the Jays, but note that Toronto is just 5-6 (-1.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range. Play on the TIGERS. |
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06-05-16 | Braves v. Dodgers -184 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the LA Dodgers. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Wisler (2-6, 3.16 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings vs. the Brewers on Thursday. Wisler has been pretty solid so far, but obviously has been the victim of poor run support. Wisler draws a tough matchup in throwing opposite Scott Kazmir (4-3, 4.38) who struck out 12 over six innings v.s the Reds on Wednesday, allowing one run off four hits with two walks in the eventual 3-1 victory. Kazmir has another golden opportunity to keep the momentum rolling vs. the anemic Braves’ offense (note that Kazmir down own a highly respectable 3.56 ERA in front of the home town crowd already). I’m laying the price and expecting a beatdown. |
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06-05-16 | Brewers v. Phillies -150 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Wily Peralta (3-6, 6.51 ERA) who is a horrible 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA on the road and who owns an even worst 6.66 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (4-4, 2.88) who comes in off a quality start vs. the hard-hitting Nationals and who owns a very respectable 3.12 ERA in all day games. After dropping yesterday’s game, I look for the home side to bounce back here, play on PHILADELPHIA. |
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06-05-16 | Mets v. Marlins -150 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on Miami Marlins. Matt Harvey (4-7, 5.37 ERA) is coming off his best outing of the year going seven scoreless in a victory over the White Sox on Monday. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing, Harvey has been a shell of his former self and he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going a poor 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with ace Jose Fernandez (8-2, 2.53) who has been one of the best in the league this season, most recently he allowed one run off six hits with one walk and 12 K’s in a victory over the Rays on Thursday. Hernandez won all five of his starts in May, allowing more than one run in just one of those outings. Fernandez owns one of the league’s best 90:15 K:BB ratio. All things considered, this is a great price. |
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